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From HQ2 to Trump, Amazon to face a lot of challenges in 2019 (The 3:59, Ep. 504)

2018-12-13
welcome to the 359 I'm Ben Fox revenge I'm Joni Saltzman 2019 is shaping up to be a challenging one for Amazon with critics seemingly coming out of the woodwork in New York City against its HQ to project their Plus the company faces potential troubles from President Trump and its controversial facial recognition software so Joan what I wanted to ask you about this is do you think that Amazon's really strong reputation with this customers will continue to help insulating it from some of these issues I mean consumers have sort of bifurcated their understanding of Amazon like I feel like even like you know we were chatting before this I'm a New Yorker year jersey the reason is that some people are annoyed with the HQ decision to move here but even though I am one of the people that's kind of annoyed by it I still use Amazon constantly right so as like a consume as a service I think that people will continue to judge Amazon as a service different than Amazon as a company yeah I totally agree I was at a council hearing the rain for like three hours yesterday we're a bunch of council members were beating up Amazon about the HQ to process how they were being cut out of it and that this is going to be a state process they didn't like the fact that Amazon was going to get three billion dollars in incentives for building one of the council members I thought really crystallized a lot of what we're talking about really well and he specifically said we we love you and we hate you and it wasn't or or whatever it was like we kind of feel the same two things about Amazon at the exact same time so I was kind of in the story that I wrote today though I was kind of curious to see people really like a lot of Google services people use a lot of Google services people really like Facebook - there there's a reason why it's the biggest social media company out there so I was curious to see if with all this tech backlash that was going on directed of both of those companies whether Amazon would start to face some of those similar issues there there are like a lot of those issues that have been simmering with the company but at the same time I really don't think that they've been hit the same way as Facebook and Google I don't know if you agree with that yeah but I think that's because most of the tech backlash we're talking about it's mostly been centered on Facebook really like its Facebook has been the locus of all that animosity and I think Google and YouTube are pulled into that vortex because they have services that are very similar like they have raised user generated social based things where are this abuse it's all kind of is able to it's like a little crackling fire it's all able to fuel each other Amazon isn't really operating in those spaces and so it's been insulated in a way yes but totally agree I think that that doesn't mean that it the next tech backlash of 2019 might be like right in the sweet spot for Amazon yeah yeah yeah and it might be related to facial recognition software or might be related to President Trump bringing up more issues about postal service stuff I mean there's a lot of areas there either way next up Amazon is building its own HQ to project in Austin Texas the company today unveiled plans for a 1 billion dollar campus that doesn't really sound like that much for Apple frankly hey Ben yeah I usually don't interrupt the podcast like this but you said Amazon's building in Texas oh my god I'm so sorry I mean they're 2a companies but let's start that segment over shall we okay it would only be appropriate that we screw up the last episode my mistake I've been talking so much about Amazon lately but thank you very much it's a very it was a fair Freudian slip and it did come back and say Apple later right the opening line next Apple is building its own HQ to project in Austin Texas the company today unveiled plans for a 1 billion dollar campus there along with new offices in Seattle San Diego Culver City California as well as expanding operations in Pittsburgh New York and Boulder Colorado so my question for you is should we go work for Amazon or Apple oh my gosh come on why would we do that but yeah I mean it's even though it's fun to kind of compare it to an HQ idea but it's really not I mean this is a kind of different expansion of their workforce then the whole like dog and pony show around HQ - in addition to this you know it's a lot the number of people that they're gonna be bringing jobs are gonna be bringing to Austin is a lot smaller than either of them it's thousands but you're right it's it's not nearly as big as the two projects they're sprinkling it around different other places that touch on initiatives that Apple is increasing so related to that do you think Apple is likely to face like similar criticism as Amazon with HQ - no no I know and it's partly because of everything that you said that they're treating it completely differently either way if you want to read more about these stories check them out on SEANET I'm Ben Fox Ruben to any salesman thanks for listening yeah no problem like I said I hate to interrupt the actual podcast but I had to say something cuz I know that you you knew what you meant but you slipped yes yes anyways you're the wind beneath my wings it's time as always to send in questions and comments these these fine folk ie are gonna try to floor them for you right out the gate let's take one from Timothy do is he's asking what exactly is amazon's endgame one-stop shopping one store to rule them all when do monopoly issues come up into this conversation yeah that's a that's a great question monopoly issues of something that's been raised a lot about Amazon lately the important stats to really pay attention to here are that Amazon in the United States controls about 50% of online shopping but it's still a small player overall in retail so in the world or in the in the world online retail in the u.s. is only about 10% which makes a lot more sense when you consider how much people you know get gas and go to restaurants and they still do shop a lot at malls and local stores so 50% is still a lot smaller than if you looked at Google search dominance or perhaps like Facebook's like ability to really control a lot of social but I think a lot of people are really concerned about the fact that Amazon not only has a really strong position in an online retail but it's growing a lot faster than a lot of its competitors plus it's the biggest player in cloud computing plus it's trying to grow in healthcare robotics so I think a lot of media so I think a lot of people are really trying to like get a hold on ok where is this company going and if we don't slow down its process could it become a monopoly I would argue that no it's not a monopoly right now if you look at the Hard figures but Timothy definitely a really good question and something that I think a lot more people are raising these days about Amazon yeah all right next questions coming in from - actually is not a question that I couldn't help myself with this one he's kind of a comparing Amazon to Oprah saying you get at HQ - you get an HQ - I would like to see that introducing headquarters in Austin Austin's the one that gets the headline but there's like six I was a little surprised too about Austin but apparently Apple already has 6,000 employees in Austin and it's going to be doubling that size so I remember we wrote a story years ago together about all the like Silicon Valley wannabes yeah so in Austin was one of the places that we highlighted along with I think the Research Triangle Denver Colorado is another one of these so yeah Austin can definitely you know kind of point to this and say like yeah we are we are a tech player and this is a big deal for them obviously yeah sure so yeah yeah so Apple I beg to differ Apple more Oprah less Amazon Oprah okay also Oprah is making a show for Apple so there you go really Porsches huh interesting so enjoy points out hey burger Larry you spent so much effort coming up with your Apple ihq to tweet that you ran out of steam and that's why you screwed up your end thank you very much for noticing that tweet I was so proud of it and clearly paid attention except for you sir enjoy thank you sir enjoy tim's askin what's the tax break between NYC and austin which one actually gives more incentives good question i don't know what the austin tax break is big surprise the tax break i can tell you for hq2 between New York City and Virginia which is where the other HQ project is going those are significantly different so New York State and New York City overall are giving around three billion dollars whereas in Virginia it's slightly it's under a billion dollars it's about 750 million roughly so and I don't know why that breakdown ended up happening or whether Amazon wanted to go to Virginia more than I wanted to come to New York I'm not really sure there are a lot of backroom conversations that happen there resulted in kind of those differences yeah we got a little bit of savagery coming from the chat from our old friend life improvements is working in Amazon starting to get close to working at Foxconn is Amazon gonna have to start inserting suicide Nets yikes oh yeah that's rough it's nowhere near that it's nowhere near that bad it can't be I mean it's bad right I mean there there are a lot of well documented stories about Amazon's treatment if it's workhorse workforce Patang particularly in the warehouses I've been to a lot of those warehouses and I can tell you that it's not something that I've seen personally but then again you know I'm there with PR they know that I'm coming but all those warehouses are sparkling clean a lot of them have been built only in recent years but that doesn't change the fact that I'm sure there are a lot of people that work there that find some of some of the treatment rather grueling because it's a very fast-growing company and especially during the holidays yeah they expect people to move a lot of packages so I can understand people's concerns related to that totally not trying to insinuate anything and we all know what it can be like when the workload gets too heavy and you can never really project yourself in anyone elses shoes on that one but that's just the word that's kind of going around on the streets these days so you got to acknowledge it oh yeah yes fully aware Matthew dad sure is asking has President Trump said anything about HQ - I don't know I haven't seen any comments well he specifies how considering that this is kind of in DC's backyard and considering he's had more than a few complet let's call them conflicts with Amazon in the past yeah they've mostly been centered around the postal service stuff Bezos is separate from Amazon bezos's ownership of Washington The Washington Post which is obviously a newspaper that gets under Trump's skin on more than one occasion but never I don't think that he's really commented on the hq2 elements of Amazon yeah it might go to Trump's golden rule that if you can't say something mean don't say anything at all because hq2 frankly fits very much in Trump's sweet spot of America first and jobs jobs jobs yeah this is a lot of jobs in DC and also in New York you would expect him to say something about this he's certainly very much like pushed and been a booster for a lot of other big projects maybe the silence on it is kind of telling in and of itself I would I would totally agree with that so and it's possible that he speaks up about it at some point because it is a huge jobs thing like this is 50,000 jobs a lot so I didn't realize this until this morning 50,000 jobs between the two HQ headquarters from Amazon 50,000 new jobs Apple's entire US workforce is 90,000 so like that's more than half of Apple's entire US workforce is going to be added by Amazon yes yes these numbers are really really big there was really nothing to sneeze at yeah and the Austin like that billion-dollar campus in Austin where Apple is going to be growing by double that's 6,000 more jobs in Austin like when you're talking about to 25,000 employee locations this is these are really really big projects and granted they're both gonna develop over a decade it's not like they're gonna hire everybody starting next year so this is something that's gonna go on for a long time and that also relates to the fact that as you know as I was at that council meeting people were so annoyed and mad about what was going on if Amazon really does have plans to continue moving forward with this project in New York it's got to figure out a way to create more buy-in in the community good well yeah so devil's advocate here is there any way for New York to actually still back out of the HQ to deal if that became a consideration it's not for the record but good day I believe so I spent a lot of time reading the Memorandum of Understanding like a week or two ago and I remember that there is a like a 60-day window I'm not 100% sure if that's a 60-day window specifically for both parties or just one but in all consideration yes there there there is an opportunity to walk away from the table at the moment they're still hammering out specific legal paperwork the Memorandum of Understanding is just like a first step for that but Amazon spent a whole year planning ahead for this so I think they're they're pretty much ended I think they spent most of the year just like procrastinating and then at the last minute they're like it was like I have houses here let's make it there that's that's actually that sounds like that makes me like Amazon executives a lot more than maybe I would have because that sounds like something that I did back in high school I got to decide really really quickly but but yeah my impression is is that they're not gonna make a quick like radical change at this point despite the fact that they're facing a lot of negativity in the New York market yeah so now's a good time I think is any to go ahead and call out what does everybody else think about these these developments now we've kind of touched on it jobs are good there's no denying that could they have been laid out better I think I see now that Timothy is pointed out like what if they put it somewhere like Albuquerque somewhere else in maybe middle America do you think that they could have planted these into places that weren't already so oversaturated perhaps is the right word maybe it's not the right word I mean let's start with you guys I mean I know we've seen that there's already protests cropping up in New York that this could have been handled better the incentives could have been handled better well go ahead and feel free to speculate I know you're gonna stay as editorial as possible because as unbiased as possible because that's your job as news people but you know this this is a weird situation because there's there's such such great highs and lows to both sides of these things yeah what do you think it's for sure I mean just considering New York versus Virginia that kind of impact would be much bigger in a place like Albuquerque like adding its 2,500 to 25,000 25,000 employee headquarters in a place that's not the biggest city in America it's gonna make a bigger difference to every other city in America no matter which one you chose so maybe that's also a reason why there's a more backlash there's backlash in New York and there's not really backlash to speak of in Virginia's because it has more of an outsized impact in a place like Virginia than it does here I strongly agree with you Joan yes yeah that's yeah for my personal opinion I was hoping Newark would get a shot at this but it's true yes it would have an outsized impact in Newark Newark in New York is basically like Newark could really use yes as an economic impact and the tech community would still you know take New Jersey Transit and like wouldn't be that far away yeah so I think there was a lost opportunity here and again this is this is more my opinion but there was a lost opportunity to create a lot of economic development in a city that really could use it Newark is a great example of that but there are other cities that were included in that top 20 that could have been completely changed they could have had a completely new trajectory due to this massive project New York their economic development team obviously argues that New York absolutely needs a project like this to diversify their economy to ensure that they're protected against a future recession we need those jobs that's everything that they said yesterday however the this this could have had a very different impact for another community and I think that's what a lot of people were hoping when they heard about hq2 and that's why people were so deflated when DC and New York City ended up getting it because these were already big top-tier winner cities to begin with that's why everybody thought it was kind of like a sham like okay you you strung this along for a whole year and you just pick two cities that were already like it was a sham to begin with like that was the other duckin sham but yeah if I could if I could at least you know like kind of like do my little swan song for for newark here that was that that's at least you know me me stating more of my opinion about that but i think there's a bit a bit unfortunate that amazon didn't go in that direction however I do know that from what Amazon said they were very much looking for tech talent and no matter what anybody has I think it really just comes down to the basis and where he wants to be like I think that he's the one that gets to decide and every CEO decides where they want to live and DC was the obvious path for that reason New York was a bit more of a surprise yeah been that in that extent everybody knew that DC was the front-runner from the get-go it was really quite enough yeah which of the three DC beds were going to end up getting it yeah I mean yeah I I think if Amazon can do a better job of explaining why they're taking the money and really push the fact that these jobs are going to help everybody in New York City as opposed to just 1% yeah and maybe give up on the helipad unless they really there's no question they were trying to justify the helipad at the at the meeting yesterday and it's one of the one of the council members were like do you realize how tone-deaf that's yes trained that like is the train that people would take to get there like literally shut down with no warning like earlier this week like there are hundreds of people packed you don't say the station they're just like sorry it doesn't work right now and there's no what like for people mostly you guys I'm sure don't live in New York there's no other way to get around up there except for that one train unless you take a bus you don't say so so the idea of having a helipad so like the helipad but then also have a public helipad the nr train people deserve to have like another helipad next to that helipad there have to work if you want to keep your ATLA bad but anyway I'm so myself so editorializing so not looking forward to having this in my backyard like I think it's that kind of yeah that's sort of like 1% ish element of it is wide general New York population is against it the it's like the optics of one of the most lucrative companies or not lucrative sorry but one of the highest value what our highest value companies on the planet getting billions and dollars in like breaks and tax breaks in order to like pump in a bunch of other well-paid employees which is great because some of those well paid employees would be people from the city but a lot won't be you know what I mean like I don't know this is and then like building a hell of it it just seems like such like profligate ostentatious showing off of their wealth and privilege I think that's what really rubs people the wrong way mm-hmm imagine if we could have seen the impact on areas like Baltimore Detroit Atlanta Salt Lake shouting out a few these will bring like that it'll bring like lots of great jobs but also there's you have to consider there is the possibility like Seattle isn't really like super gung ho for Amazon given how much Amazon has changed the City of Seattle being such a powerful employer there being such a powerful company they're the biggest they're the biggest employer in Seattle which is that's one of the benefits for New York is is that Amazon is going to be a major player in New York but for a city this size Amazon is not going to have nearly as much influence as it does in Seattle and that has been kind of like the the blessing and the curse for Seattle in that the city has benefited enormously from Amazon and Amazon also exerts a lot of control in the city there's no there's no doubt that that's happening because they they are the biggest employer there they brought a lot of other tech industry to the city they've they've really revitalized the city but there's a lot of difficulty that's come with it that's why it's called the prosperity bomb in Seattle is that it comes with it you know difficulty on the infrastructure or the schools the roads higher rents homelessness has been a problem in Seattle so these are all issues that are going to have to be addressed in New York that granted already a lot of them exist here and maybe you know considerably worsened as this project goes on so yeah it'll be something that I'm sure we're gonna talk about on the podcast for quite a while alright we're almost running out of time here let's take a couple more here's a really great one from will wouldn't have caused some gentrification if had been put into underdeveloped areas that's something I have not personally thought about myself well that's exactly what's happening in Queens like I mean not what is happening but it is in they are at Long instead of the area in Queens where HQ is going to be isn't it's like you know it has a housing project right next to it so it's not the there's the idea of gentrification notifications happening all over New York without Amazon company very Tring into coming into the city but Long Island City I think is one of the areas where all the places all the like luxury condos that they open it's the one place where people haven't been like flocking to those luxury condos yes but that's gonna be changing now what there's gonna be highly paid workers right congregated there yeah there's there's an argument against gentrification related to every single one of the top 20 cities that were being considered some more than others obviously by there's there's a reason why city leaders all were really fighting for this project because they saw the opportunity for increased tax rolls for more jobs for more development for their cities to become you know major tech hubs similar to Seattle or Silicon Valley so you do have to balance in way some of those issues against each other and that's why when Amazon went and said it was gonna go and develop HQ to the folks were falling all over themselves the city leaders at least were falling all over themselves in hopes of getting that project because they knew that it could be a boon for their communities an important thing that we do here is to really talk about the balance of okay those are the benefits and here are the potential negatives as well and you know that's why it was a good question anyway to talk about some of that Tim's asking when one town is dependent on one company say ge in Detroit when that company leaves the city it kind of turns to a disaster so when Amazon hq2 leaves will that have the same impact I don't know if that's necessarily the case in these circumstances because New York by no me needs HQ to DC doesn't fully need HQ to Seattle didn't need HQ one they have other industries there that they do rely on as well I think Seattle would be very negatively impacted if Amazon were to leave I don't think that's gonna happen anytime soon so this is more of a that's that's a pretty far-reaching hypothetical in that hq2 they haven't even laid down the first brick so it'll it'll be a long time if hq2 gets built filled out the city's end up starting to really depend on them and then amazon starts moving away to I don't know some crazy hq3 project so um but yeah like I I think the primary concern could be for Seattle in that if Amazon decides to start building a lot more in those two other locations what does that mean for Seattle and the hopes of development there Sean's asking is Amazon getting double the perks while shorting both cities on taxes that is one potential theory on that I mean they are getting a lot of perks but the argument from Amazon and city developers are that they're they're gonna get a lot back in tax rolls and investment from Amazon and lastly before we wrap up the verse Asian what is the timeline on this again it'll be about a decade for the total development to come through for both projects so Amazon is going to start hiring in both locations starting next year but it'll be a slow process and and yeah it'll be it'll be about a full 10 years of me writing about this before they get fully built out I feel like Roger will conclude like droning on about 5g before you stop stop stop droning on about HQ - yeah it's possible I think there's more longevity and in that conversation I'd like to trade for 5g can I do that at this point from this camera angle you can actually see a little bit of Ben's soul leaving in his solos intact intact but like his social like metrics maybe his like the the whatever metric it is that this is a person you want to talk to at a party that ranking guys talk to me talk to burger Larry at a party okay all right we're out of time guys it's been such a fun year we have done so much we've moved the set we have ramped up our output we've expanded the audience you guys are amazing before we call it a year do we have any closing thoughts and what are you guys up to over the holidays until we come back oh my god I'm not going to my in-laws I'm so excited about the show to drop that a bomb I don't know I'm getting an air B&B we're like they're gonna be 14 kids there so that's gonna be super fun yeah but I'm gonna be on vacation pretty soon so that'll be nice well design yeah it's been fun because you won't be able to take another one for the next ten years no no thanks everybody for all like the great questions and comments really appreciate it throughout the year all the supportive and encouraging words and the tweets and yeah yes absolutely and we look forward to doing that a lot more next year and we'll be coming back on the CES stage starting next year which will be a lot of fun and January third fourth fifth I think I don't know yeah but we're gonna be on hiatus through the end of the year so this is the last one for 2018 but thanks for carrying us through episode 502 onward and upward to the next milestone should I do the thing do the thing I'll do the thing alright the 359 is available on iTunes tune in Feedburner Google Play is a Google podcast the Amazon echo and of course cnn.com thanks everybody for a great year happy new years yeah and I guess I should say Merry Christmas is a little bit of Ben soul it doesn't matter it doesn't matter Happy Hanukkah is in all of our hearts but anyway thanks everybody and we'll see you again next year and Festivus for the rest of us
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