Next Big Thing - Self-driving cars: So many reasons, so many hurdles
Next Big Thing - Self-driving cars: So many reasons, so many hurdles
2013-10-17
you know a few things in technology
right now inspire as much fascination
doubt and personal indignation as
self-driving cars each traffic light has
to be correctly identified from the all
weather and lighting conditions I didn't
drive anything I was just sitting in the
car amazed about how smooth and how
simple it looks even though there is a
lot of technology behind the car so I'm
very encouraging new more precise
cameras will ensure the lane-keeping aid
functions perfectly
this increases comfort as well as safety
of course the driver can regain control
over the vehicle at any point however
particularly in situations like this you
will increasingly wonder why he's sure
we're gonna get there even sooner than
we think
okay the reasons for self-driving cars
these largely cluster around greater
good
for example fewer accidents computers
don't get bored they don't drink they
know the rules of the road they don't
get distracted by that smart phone on
the seat next to them that could really
eat away at the 93 percent or so of the
six million annual wrecks in this
country that are caused by humans
screw-up then there's better Road
utilization let's face it humans are
pretty lousy at driving precisely
keeping their cars in a very even gap
and a closed gap just look at this video
from an experiment recently where the
drivers were asked to follow each other
with an even tight gap between their
cars and not really now computers at the
wheel can maintain tight gaps with low
elasticity as they move back and forth
in conditions that means more cars on
existing roadway with great safety
better fuel utilization computers can be
programmed to operate the accelerator
and brake in a way that preserves
kinetic energy rather than dumping fuel
in the cylinders at one moment only to
convert that speed and to brake dust and
heat the next Edmonds estimates that
even current cruise control can save
some 14% of fuel when implemented
greater productivity average American
right now spends something like 200
hours a year babysitting a dumb machine
from home to work and back again think
what you could get done either
personally or in your work if you had
that time back at those times now the
arguments I most often hear against
self-driving cars often accompanied by a
red face go along these lines first I
like to drive so do I believe me but I
don't like my commute
I don't like minding a machine on
routine journeys back and forth on the
weekend you can switch your autonomous
car to manual I don't trust computers
this one's understandable after all
we're basically talking about putting
the same technology into cars that gave
us the blue screen of death the sad Mac
and five bars but no connection however
I take quite a bit of Hope in the
commercial airline industry as an
example of how we can get five nines of
reliability in a critical transportation
mode related to that one is when
computers fail they fail spectacularly
humans tend to pick up on things before
they get out of hand but I have to
believe the software development
infrastructure and redundant systems can
solve this one and there's the concern
that this stuff's gonna make cars cost a
fortune
well a lot of the building blocks are in
cars affordably today look at adaptive
cruise control self parking Lane drift
prevention blind spot warning tech take
those existing technologies give them
another million lines of code or so and
permission to do their thing and we
might have a very safe system it's
affordable already here's some
milestones that you should watch with me
to see how self-driving cars progressed
first of all those building technologies
I just mentioned look for them to become
almost ubiquitous in cars of every price
class then look for regulatory
acceptance the way California and Nevada
have recently put laws on the books
saying it's okay to have an autonomous
car on public roads as long as a human
can catch it if it screws up car maker
leadership not just salesmanship
companies like Nissan Mercedes General
Motors among those who said self-driving
cars will start to really arrive as soon
as 2020 there will be hiccups and
problems on the road the key is to
handle those with a public dialogue and
education then there's generational
change successive generations will
probably see self-driving as less of a
threat as less subtract
tip for their lifestyle than previous
generations and finally google few tech
companies have the ability to create
behavioral change on a global scale as
google does and has bottom line is this
is a win not an f' to get ready for at
least a partially autonomous car in your
foreseeable future
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