AMD's Opportunity to Strike at NVIDIA Market Share
AMD's Opportunity to Strike at NVIDIA Market Share
2016-04-06
hey everyone i'm steve from gamers nexus
Donette and i'm here at the graphics
technology conference 2016 gtc 2016 i
was put on by nvidia but i'm here to
talk about nvidia and AMD collectively
right now because there's some
interesting stuff that we've sort of
thought through while here and just
before diving into that let me point out
this awesome dude on the wall behind me
where obviously i'm in a hotel room not
the normal set and that i guess is the
indication of luxury that we live in
while traveling for conventions but
here's the thing so this is the cool
stuff Pascal was showing off in a big
way today at the keynote you can see
that in our previous content on the
website and the channel and the main
item was the tesla p100 GPU so p100 is
the first major pascal GPU that was
really talked about in a critical way by
nvidia in any way sort of beyond top
level and tesla is the p100 tesla is not
meant for consumers not geforce product
it will never be a Jeep forest product
but these super computing devices are on
architectures that predicate sort of the
eventual arrival of geforce and consumer
cards so it is an important product to
at least look at or understand a
top-level tesla p100 is shipping for a
quarter won 20-17 the announcement is
expected for quarter 4 2016 through the
OEM so MSB Dell HP IBM and cray those
are the ones who will be shipping it
immediately with their sort of high end
devices so that's the timeline for
high-end Pascal that does not mean that
there won't be a consumer level release
of Pascal before then and there probably
will be just based on speculation and
what we're used to with the industry
here's what's interesting AMD has a
large window right now to start making a
pretty serious come back in terms of
market share whatever you think of their
numbers in terms of FPS that's all
obviously objective and you look it up
we've done the testing ourselves but
whatever you think of a number is
whether you are in one camp or the other
the one thing that really can't be
overlooked right now is that
AMD is a sort of rising in API
performance with the new API is so
Direct X 12 Vulcan they're doing pretty
well there right now and a lot of that
is thanks to the asynchronous compute
architecture that they have that does
not mean that Nvidia can't that perform
them I'm really not speaking to that
right now but what it does mean is that
in the very least they're starting to
look good and if you like them or not
AMD has a very small percentage of the
global market share right now for gaming
so they're in a bad spot in terms of
just sort of global dominance of the the
market and video last I checked was more
than 65 for something maybe as high as
seventy percent now of the market for
geforce cards so that's it's it's
important for AMD to start making moves
if they really want to stay in this
market and obviously we would all love
them to stay in the market because
competition is the only reason and if it
improves the only reason prices are
reasonable and both these companies AMD
and NVIDIA and if you look outside of
them intel included and even armed an
arm doesn't even really compete in
desktop they don't compete in x86 all
these semiconductor and silicon
companies they drive gaming innovation
they work with the engine developers arm
has worked with epic again not even
really x86 but they do it and that
drives graphics technology it improves
the engine tech at a lower level so even
if you don't care about this super best
realistic graphics it does still improve
performance on low-end devices and make
things more accessible so it's very
important that AMD stays in the game and
they do make some good GPU products
right now and because of this Pascal
sort of I don't know if it's a delay or
just a really long time line of
development but because Pascal is taking
so long to get out to consumers and it
has a really good opportunity to start
making moves with Polaris and with na'vi
so here's a quick thing about polaris i
think a lot of people don't understand
polaris is more of a stepping stone to
na'vi which is the one that people
really should care a lot about not the
say polaris isn't worth caring about but
polaris is making big moves to 14
nanometer FinFETs i believe they're so
nvidia and AMD are both moving down to
14 and the 16 nanometer FinFET
transistors process node and this is a
move from 28 nanometers that's a massive
reduction and what that means if you
don't know is an increase in performance
per watt so the wat draw will if it
remains the same the performance will be
much higher or if performance may be
marginally improves then in the very
least we get a wattage reduction that is
somewhat significant and obviously good
for everyone so and also good for heat
by the way that lowers the the thermals
so with that said the FinFET transistors
the reason they're called thin fat the
fin fi n it sort of literally means it's
shaped like a fin like a shark fin so
the transistors got this it's almost
like a bucket or it's like that and it
helps prevent things like the power
leakage and that's what improves a lot
of the the performance per watt that
said the the move to the smaller
architecture the processing node is
critical and the gains will certainly be
unless something else goes terribly
wrong the gains will be pretty
substantial and at least the power
department and with nav e and E is going
to be running hbm to with Polaris it's
not hbm to but I can tell you it's
probably hbm one or gddr5 or gddr5 X I
know that only rules out one thing so
Polaris probably gddr5 or 5x maybe the
high end is hpm I don't know I'm not
clear on that but Pascal will be hbm to
and hbm to is a one terabyte per second
bandwidth theoretical maximum throughput
memory architecture and that is 4096
bits wide that is a massive bus with HB
m1 is I believe 512 gigabytes per second
dish on the fury X it's it's 128
gigabytes per second per stack so it
depends on how many stacks they have but
that's what hbm one is so even moving
from that this is going to be a pretty
big deal Pascal or Polaris excuse me
Polaris is due sometime soon
i don't have a timeline on that is
anything more than what you guys know
but polaris is looking like somewhere in
the next few months if we're lucky
before august if am d can start shipping
before nvidia it's it's going to be
really good for them because md right
now they are looking pretty good in
asynchronous compute benchmarks Pascal
will definitely improve and videos
performance in Direct X 12 in Vulcan and
that's going to start threatening AMD's
potential I don't know if it's really a
lead but it'll it'll threaten am these
minimally market perception in the
immediate future when Pascal comes out
that's that's sort of the threat to Andy
is a the very least their market
perception with the DX 12 and Vulcan new
API performance so if Andy can push this
newer architecture which will definitely
further asynchronous processing
capabilities it'll have better
performance per watt which is where
they've really struggled in the fury x
did improve that a lot but it still was
behind and videos equivalent devices
they've got a good window they can
really make things happen and we've been
very critical of AMD the last few years
for their GPUs CPUs different stories
some of the CPUs are pretty damn good
the ATK for example pretty good cpu less
than 100 bucks but we're not talking
about that today their drivers were
pretty bad not a full generation ago but
the 300 series I was very critical of it
of 380 and the 390 launch those improved
massively since then and we've said this
several times where and these drivers
have actually gotten pretty good now and
their software has improved with radeon
settings they're on a pretty big upswing
and Sam son in some ways has bailed out
AMD to help create this upswing or at
least perpetuated and that is because
Sam son is helping with fabricating some
of the new products so that's that's a
big deal Sam son is a big vendor if they
have an interest in AMD that's good for
AMD they certainly need alliances
because GlobalFoundries has been there
fab and if Samsung can fabricate things
too then they're in good shape just sort
of quick
recap here and these a fabless processor
manufacturers so so I'm like Intel were
they on their own fabrication plants and
the got rid of there's a long time ago
they use GlobalFoundries now they're
using samsung in addition to that so
that's a big deal so I just wanted to
bring up that discussion point where AM
DS in a good position right now and a
lot of that is to do with the
architecture the reduction in fab
process the process node where Nvidia
and AMD are both moving to smaller sizes
from 28 animators to 14 and 16 whoever
gets there first will have pretty big
gains and that's important for mark your
presence and market perception and then
the other thing of course is the new API
is where am d and NVIDIA are both
definitely working to improve
asynchronous computation of commands as
they come down the pipe and that will
correspond to work better with direct
expelled and with Vulcan and things like
that which are growing API is in the
game and market space right now I would
say definitely pay close attention to
the launch schedule for polaris for
na'vi and for pascal and probably for in
terms of benchmarking you should be
looking at a lot of new API benchmarks
for these cards not just traditional
dx11 benchmarks and we'll be running
both of those api's and the x11 s will
be running all three and obviously
that's sometime in the future but check
back the channel for that as things roll
out so let me know what you think post a
comment below what your thoughts are for
am these current window of opportunity i
suppose what you think about the pascal
architecture versus the new polaris or
na'vi architectures interested to read
what you think and maybe we'll talk
about it next ask GN episode but as
always if you like this content hit the
patreon link the postural video to help
us out directly post comment below and
I'll see you all next time
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