HW News - RAM Price Fixing Evidence, CPU Shortage Through March
HW News - RAM Price Fixing Evidence, CPU Shortage Through March
2018-11-28
everyone welcome back to another
hardware news recap for the week while
we've been busy with the wall RPC and we
have more on that coming up soon we got
news about the ongoing price-fixing
investigations currently being
spearheaded by the Chinese government
for memory prices you may remember this
story from a couple of months ago well
it hasn't stopped it's been going on
slowly in the background as government
proceedings often do so we have an
update on the price-fixing investigation
over there and then also Nvidia stock
took a nosedive 19% don't really do too
much on financial side but we'll talk
about that board partners have way too
much inventory right now which relates
to the previous item of Nvidia stock and
then there was an RT X 26 T week amount
of other things for this week before
that this video is brought to you by US
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so let's get into news so first of all
the Chinese government claims it has
evidence of price fixing this is the
biggest thing that has come out in the
last week or two so we've been covering
the Chinese government's investigation
as DRAM makers for a couple of months
now and that would include SK Hynix
Samsung and micron those are the big
three for memory manufacturing that
includes SSDs they really don't have any
competition at this point besides each
other oh then I guess you could count
Nonya and they they don't do a whole lot
they make DRAM for asses
things like that some of the cash so the
investigation stems from the theory of
price fixing and anti-competitive
behavior amidst skyrocketing memory
prices which you likely have all noticed
and it's got a little bit better in the
last couple of weeks but either way in
DRAM manufacturers defense they appear
to be cooperating with the proceedings
not on the defense they've been caught
price-fixing before legitimately caught
doing it but previous history does not
indicate current trends so there's no no
evidence that we have publicly yet of
price fixing and that's because the
Chinese government despite saying they
have quote massive evidence of price
fixing between the three memory
manufacturers that we all know China has
not released that information yet so
according to the story broken by the
Financial Times the investigation has
yielded evidence of the aforementioned
companies conspiring to increase the RAM
prices Oh Jen go ahead of China's
anti-monopoly Bureau stated that the
investigation has quote yielded massive
evidence however no evidence has been
made public yet until the Chinese
government decides to be more
forthcoming with its evidence likely
after it does some more investigating
it's worth taking this information with
a grain of salt so far none of the big
three have responded to the allegations
and they are fighting a stateside
class-action lawsuit that was filed
recently and when more information comes
out into the public sphere we'll keep
you informed accordingly of course SK
Hynix
Samsung and micron make up the great
memory triumvirate controlling an
estimated 95 percent of the world's DRAM
market China has since been trying to
break into the memory market on its own
with no shortage of its own controversy
as a reminder Samsung on hynek's were
both defined in 2005 and 2010 for
price-fixing
but again past behavior doesn't
guarantee current behavior and the
Chinese government has been attempting
to break into memory as a stateside
issue so of course that requires some
additional scrutiny too but we are not
going to be the experts in this story so
we'll keep you informed as the experts
continue to uncover the legal and
financial proceedings and we'll boil it
down to the hardware topics that are
most relevant to our audience so stay
tuned for more of that it's been a slow
process but that's what legal matters
are so next
a rumor so put on your rumor hats I
guess that's the thing this one
especially we're a little bit more
cautious I almost cut it from our news
story today but we're gonna leave it in
there because it is getting some
traction so just be firmly advised
there's no evidence of any of this yet
so it might not actually be real but
either way let's get into the rumor side
just for some fun so Intel allegedly is
bringing 10 cores to the desktop and
they've kind of already done that with
the 700 X but that was technically an
HED tcp it was about $1,000 when it
launched so when AMD launched its first
Zen base tries and chips in 2017 it sort
of marked a return to the core Wars for
Intel and AMD making things a bit
exciting again in the CPU space
something that's been kind of lacking in
the years prior
so 2018 is about a good year for CPUs in
general anthe and Intel had a lot of
launches and a lot of those are our very
core heavy on the CPU side so Intel's
gone from comfortably putting quad-core
chips at the top of their product stack
with hyper-threading to go into things
like 8 cores for example with
hyper-threading and even higher on h EDT
now there's a new rumor from taiwanese
forums that has been turned on the rumor
mill to suggest intel could be ready in
10 core parts for main stream desktop
with a comet lake s lineup if you're not
familiar with the S demarcation it's
what all the desktop Seabees are so in
8700 K would be an ass CPU details are
scarce the rumor only alludes to 10
cores based on Intel's 14 nanometer and
that there could be an additional rain
bus introduced as a design comet lake is
rumored to be the micro architectural
successor to coffee lake and whiskey
lake and is supposedly slated for mid
2019 and as with all rumors this should
be clear at this point grain of salt and
some of them are more trustworthy than
others we try to a lot of time when we
report on rumors and our stories this is
some behind the scenes news for you or
information when we report on them in
these news round ups it's typically the
case that we'll check with our sources
in the industry off record and confirm
if those stories have any legitimacy to
them we have not been able to do that
yet for this one so not really confirmed
but the timing makes sense mid 2019 is
about when Intel would launch another
product so
we'll see what happens and video so I
can know his dive of 19 percent in the
market this past couple of weeks last
week or so and this news is adjacent to
the coming up news about hardware
problems going into 2019
especially with the oversupply of
current or now previous generation
Pascal products so in recent earnings
reports and Vidia announced that it
expects fourth-quarter earnings to only
be two point seven billion dollars which
is much less than the anticipated three
point four billion that Nvidia
previously targeted the primary reasons
for these shrunken earnings are Nvidia's
at lackluster r-tx launch I don't think
we need to update you on what happened
there and a miscalculation of the
cryptocurrency boom don't think we need
to let you know or update you know
happen there either
so in quite a slump for cryptocurrency
mining and that has led to oversupply of
ten series cards and rx cards from AMD
specifically gtx 1060 cards for Nvidia
and videos stock dropped nearly 19%
after the news broke which is the lowest
recorded one-day drop for the company in
ten years this news overshadowed the
record profits in the data center and
automotive segments though somebody is
doing well in that segment especially
and videos that Jensen Wan has called
this a crypto hangover his words and
stated that the excess inventory of
mid-range cards would take one to two
quarters to correct
Nvidia of course has an upcoming 2016
chat some point whether it be RT x with
gtx we don't yet know but one of the
consequences of this oversupply of gtx
1060 s could be that the mid range
during cards have some kind of delay or
other impact that we're just not
familiar with yet so we'll see the ship
dates could potentially be pushed back
as inventories recede but just depends
on how well there's 1060 sell for this
final quarter of the year and next up
board partners have too much inventory
it's related to the previous one so
according to new reports from digit x
motherboard and GPU makers in taiwan
which is most of them that you're
familiar with are facing revenue
declines and shrinking margins stemming
from multiple factors in third quarter
of 2018 one of the biggest ones is
intel's shortage of 14 nanometer this
has been a major story of the last
couple of months now to the point where
intel starting to push some of its
Manufacturing to TSMC reported on that a
couple of weeks ago they're also pushing
their some of their chipsets 40
nanometer very low-end chipsets back to
22 nanometers so that's also worthy of
note h-series chipsets and the 300 line
so Intel CPU shortage is a big one
that's impacting GPU and motherboard
makers primarily motherboard on that
side the erosion of demand from crypto
miners of course impacting the video
card board partners significantly and
then the us-china trade war that's
expected to have a major tariff hike
January 1st 2019 Asus and gigabyte are
both taiwan-based
EVGA has a large headquarters in Taiwan
a messiah has a large headquarters in
Taiwan most of these companies sans
gigabyte do actually including you might
do their largest volume manufacturing in
China gigabyte has a smaller facility in
Taiwan believe it's in Tao yen not sure
but we've been there we have a video on
it but that's a small facility it's kind
of an outlier the other companies don't
really manufacture much outside of China
so that's going to affect things going
forward as well
these ill effects have caused companies
like asus and gigabyte to report excess
inventories as motherboard and video
card shipments are down from last year
year-over-year
this means that revenue was below peak
expectations for the holiday season as
well as for this quarter in general so
for instance asus saw a 43% dip in
profits for third quarter 2018 gigabyte
for their part only netted four point
two seven million dollars in profits for
third quarter 2018 which is the lowest
recorded for gigabyte since third
quarter 2008 big chains there what's
worse is these trends are expected to
continue into 2019 gigabyte is expecting
to see its profits cut in half for first
quarter 19 compared to the same quarter
last year and according to digit times
may swing into the red for fourth
quarter of 2018 Intel and NVIDIA are
also affected here Intel's widely
publicized CPU shortage of course is a
major factor for their well-being and
Nvidia's price seat new GPUs make for
problems for both companies both of
these companies also work with board
partners whether that's motherboards or
video cards and that's why you're seeing
the effects that stem to them as well
so then Intel and and
are expected to hike prices in 2019 for
their chips in a bid to maintain profits
which will further put pressure on
motherboard and adding board partners
and likely lead to hardware prices
rising in 2019 alongside the tariffs
change so we'll keep an eye on it but
not great news there for us even though
it's the companies who are primarily
affected right now
RDX 2060 this is a sort of a rumor but
not really kind of depends I look at it
so the 2060 benchmark was kind of leaked
through final fantasy again final
fantasy 15 s database is a popular place
these days for these types of updates we
saw with rx 590 we've seen it with an
yet unidentified Vega part and if you
want to be cynical you might think that
the company has pushed these types of
things out to these benchmark databases
by accident to create some buzz or maybe
undercut their competitors releasing
products in a similar category and that
might be what's happening but either way
he RT X 2060 appeared there the rx 590
appeared there recently ahead of its
eventual release and now it appears the
2060 has serviced in the extremely
flawed benchmark as well the one that
we've talked about in the past and we
use the our tax monitor moniker
unassumingly here because there's yet
confirmation about whether it's gonna be
RT X or GTX and there's plenty of
speculation that mid-range touring cards
won't be RT X cable we've been among
that group because if you look at it is
a 2060 really going to have enough mm to
really push RTS really push any kind of
real-time rate raising when it still has
to combat actual general performance
because it's not the highest tier card
on the market or in the stack at any
rate art here 2060 was purportedly
benchmark at 4k resolution in Final
Fantasy 15 s benchmark and that has a
high quality preset leading to a score
of 25 89 points for comparison at
handily beats both the new rx 590 and
the GTX 1060 with a barely trailing
score behind a gtx 1070 at 27 48 points
there's some variance there also the
benchmark is bad but it gives you a
basic idea anyway next so as with all
these leaks and rumors liberal amount of
salt here the RX 590 was actually proven
in this one so they're not all
far-fetched but you know keep it keeping
my
that that's not confirmation just
something that popped up online as cloud
computing becomes more pervasive in
daily life data centers demand for
high-energy airs on the side of
insatiable data centers across the globe
are currently using 416 terawatt hours
of electricity which is an estimated two
percent of global power global power for
data centers has been a concern for some
time now as they consume and waste
enough energy to power small cities data
in the cloud is expected to quintuple
between 2016 and 2021 with cloud traffic
estimated to account for over 95% of
data center traffic the succeeds
previous predictions that global cloud
traffic would double every four years
and as such data centers are becoming
increasingly scrutinized as the power
concerns come into play going forward
data centers will be expected to reduce
IT emissions store data more efficiently
and build more scalable facilities the
SN ia storage networking Industry
Association emerald program at that aims
to do just that with aiding and
scalability and reducing emissions and
increasing storage efficiency we have a
link to that coverage below in the show
notes if you want to read more about
what sni a is doing or if Nia if you
prefer so we got an email this morning
from Samsung's PR firm that they work
with saying that their new 860 QB o SSDs
based on QL seen and will use the new
SATA technology it's not new it's it was
released in 2009 for say two three and
two thousand four SATA but and we did
actually email back and say so just to
make sure we're not missing anything
here what's new about SATA is there like
a new gen there's SATA 4 no one's told
me about nope just a PR firm getting the
words wrong so what is new is the 860 QV
SSDs not say that just to be really
clear they're so SSD makers are getting
on board with kiosk scene at an end this
can be explained in our previous how
NAND works video if you want to learn
more about what mlct LCS I'll see all
that stuff really means ultimately and
the effect is you get higher density
storage for a lower price with less
endurance and less performance this is a
trade-off yeah more storage but it might
die it will die sooner and the
performance isn't as good and those are
absolutes so QL
is being used to bring terabyte SSDs
into the fold that more aggressive
pricing although recently will link one
of these below maybe there's been
discount sales new pricing on one
terabyte SSD said about 120 hundred
fifty dollars on how good of an SSD you
get it's pretty damn good
but it can always be cheaper apparently
so that's where qlc comes in and this
looks like it's been on the market
roadmap since october at this point but
they're finally releasing and appearing
online samsung qbo drives will adhere to
the two and a half inch SSD form factor
we'll use the old SATA 3 interface
likely no surprise to anyone there the
drivers will use qlc 3d NAND which
focuses on density rather than
performance an early test show qlc
lacking and write performance and
endurance with endurance being the
biggest point of concern that buyers
should consider that bu the drives
offered dense storage at a low cost so
might be a trade-off that's worth it for
some use cases despite that Samsung's
qbo drives are rated for 550 megabyte
per second or 520 megabyte per second
sequential read and write speeds and up
to 96 thousand or 89 thousand even write
random IOPS for K random so far there
looked to be three capacities one two
and four terabytes official pricing
hasn't been revealed or at least at the
time of filming this but the qbo drives
should be cheaper in general than the
Evo or pro family at similar capacities
and those prices are probably out there
at this point when it goes live but
that's the point of qlc it'd be cheaper
at the same capacity so Samsung's qbo
drives are currently expected for
December 2018 and wide availability but
Samsung hasn't made that official last
one Intel and the 40 nanometers shortage
mentioned a few times already the show
but Intel's shortage puts partners on
hold through March now so multiple PC
vendors and some smaller vendors who are
working with Intel directly on high
unexpectedly high demand parts have
confirmed and come forward that Intel's
14 nanometer shortage is beginning to
affect their businesses as well as
partners where's a rough place to be
what are you gonna do you can't make the
trip yourself so just last week and tell
me clear its plans to slash DIY CPU
availability to the channel by about 2
million units affecting all of us and
instead directing that allocation toward
OMS and system builders some of them
more some of them will make better use
of those chips
so it seems that Gemini Lake s OCS are
so backlogged now that vendors are
expecting and manufacturers expecting to
wait until February or March 2019 for
orders hard Colonels Odroid h2 is an x86
based product single board mini PC that
uses the Celeron J 4105 and apparently
that company undershot demand for the
system by so much and sold through its
2000 products in about 24 hours that
it's become a problem that they just
hold somebody because they can't get
more inventory so they're part of the
the group that's been confirming these
reports of shortages Intel reports that
it can't deliver anymore Gemini Lake
chips until February or March and can't
even confirm a delivery schedule until
January so that's potentially on the
optimistic side for those those months
and so I was already off-loaded some of
its entry-level chip production to TSM
see they've offloaded some of the
chipset production as well or brought it
back to 22 nanometer and rumors have
suggested SOC may become out sourced in
addition to these other parts but if it
keeps production going and that's what
they need to do so that's it for this
one as always you can go to store doc
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look at that in soon this week probably
thanks for watching and subscribe for
more
I'll see you all next time
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