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Special Report: AMD’s Comeback Story - Intel vs. AMD Marketshare

2019-04-11
this GN special report looks at years of sales data from which CPUs our viewers and readers have purchased the focus is our audience and so we're looking at Intel versus and the sales volume and to some extent market share in the enthusiast segment of GN content consumers our data looks at average selling price or ASP of CPUs the most popular CPU models from each vendor and change over a 3.5 year period and the overall sales volume between Intel and AMD across fourth quarter 2016 all the way through first quarter of 2019 ending in March before that this video is brought to you by mass drops vast 35 inch curved gaming monitor the vast 35 is a 34 40 by 1440 ultra wide display with 100 Hertz refresh and free sync compatibility more games than ever have ultra wide resolution support and at 35 inches this monitor minimizes the space used on the desk while maximizing the available screen space the vast 35 uses an aluminum bezel for a professional clean look and can be easily adjusted vertically rotated or tilted on the staff learn more at the link in the description below andy has undoubtedly gained market share over the last two years and multiple factors have aligned for andy here so really mixture of skill and luck with this one obviously the Zen architecture launch was a huge deal for Andy I put them back on the map with a Seabee architecture that's genuinely pretty good and also some misfortune for its competitor Intel which is dealing with issues like shortages of 40 nanometers supply inability to hit targets with ten nanometer and then overall shifting its supply from the DIY enthusiast space to a lot more OEM and s eyes as the company has struggled to keep up with demand and these factors have all aligned to enable AMD to retake critical parts of the DIY enthusiast market which our channel represents so that's what we're looking at today any one of these things would have helped AMD coming back from FX which was really just not successful especially in the last few years of FX before Rison but having all three aligned together does give aim the huge boost so in addition to all Intel zone sales volume has been tilting and in a way that the higher-end processors are now the primary processors from our audience being purchased from Intel where the i-5 segment has basically died it's been completely consumed by the r5 segment from AMD a massive change because up until a couple of years ago it was not uncommon including from us to see phrases like an i-5 is good enough for gaming which was true but now there are better things today we're looking at affiliate sales from Newegg and Amazon over multiple years of operation spanning both gamers Nexus dotnet readers and our YouTube viewers we need to set some ground rules here so first of all this data represents our audience you shouldn't take it on extrapolated across the entire market we don't really know what's being sold in the OEM or si segments we can postulate that it's mostly Intel because if you look at any of their systems they are mostly Intel and this is an issue and he has discussed with us as recently as CES where the company said that it is now trying to target OMS and SAS get more inclusion in those pcs but either way we can't get total absolute market share we can get sort of a sales volume or a market share shift of our enthusiasts audience so that's rule number one that will skew the data because it's skewed towards what our viewers would buy second rule is that our reviews and our content will skew the data as well so if we tend to favor a particular processor in reviews that one is more likely to be purchased by our viewers and our 2017-2018 best CPUs content would influence that as well so when we said the r7 1700 was a good all-around choice we said the 8700 K was one of the best choices from I think two years ago now that would influence the data so keeping that in mind we can get a cross-section of the enthusiasts audience and get an idea of CPU buying trends our head-to-head data goes back to 2016 when we moved a lot of products through Newegg via gamers nexus net the website the data set starts with Intel holding it roughly 80% of monthly sales in October of 2016 with AMD at about 20% the next several months looked bad for Andy dipping roughly to 7% sales in December of that year nearly all units sold we're going to Intel and this was a period when Andy didn't yet have Rison the company was surviving entirely on aged FX and APU product things started improving a February 22nd of 2017 which is when pre-orders open for Rison 1000 series CPUs and declines back to 20% in February then spiked hard to around 43% in March the CP is released on March 2nd starting with the 1,700 1,700 X and 1,800 xep use and he started dipping again after this initial excitement period eroded and this was the closest that AMD had been in years to Intel levels of sales volume Intel develops distance in June when its 7900 X + i9 CPUs first hit the markets regaining some of the market interest things changed again in August with the threader for 1950 X launching on August 10th and the 1900 X release in end of month alongside intel's i 979 ATX II the Saturday 9 DD X II wasn't enough to resist and these advances though and the two companies hit parity for the first time in GM's tracked sales history from our affiliate accounts with Amazon and Newegg this dates back to 2011 so we hadn't seen parity or any any instance where AMD outperformed Intel for several years that was since since 2010 2011 and the Intel both started moving an equal amount of CPUs at this point and the r5 CPUs also were on the market launching alongside the stranglehold that Andy would eventually begin to develop on the mid-range market sort of pushing out the i5 CPUs this is where it really becomes a war between the two companies CBS started launching faster than ever with 2017 becoming our busiest year of CP reviews in jeans history in top holdin all of its launch dates for 2017 bringing the i9 h EDT cpus to june from an original end of your target so a massive move there and also rushing the i5 and i7 8000 series cpu launches by a full quarter in fact it was so rushed that only the Z 390 motherboards were immediately available and even those didn't have high quantities out the CPUs were tough to find and mainstream chipsets like the non Z 390 chipsets did not launch with an on K CPUs which may absolutely no sense and didn't gain any reviewer sentiment this Illustrated Intel's rush to get CPUs to market before the holiday and it was a scramble that was enacted almost entirely because of the AMD moves that were made earlier in the year the CPUs were planned but the launch dates were not Intel announced the 8000 series CPUs in September and launched them in October of 2017 unfortunately for Intel as Black Friday rolled around the company got steamrolled in sales volume Intel moved just under 40 percent of our total tracked sales volume with Andy stretching past 60% Rison 3 & 5 had launched in July threaded 4 in August and r7 in March so this was when the full product stack was on the market we reported on several CPU and motherboard combo deals for Andy in November but we did also post PC build guides for Intel and Andy systems alike Intel also got recommendations and other content so it's not like it went unmentioned in our coverage Intel almost never has sales or discounts on its stock even old stock so Andy easily commanded this holiday season by lowering its prices or doing combo deals where Intel would not November had very high sales volume for both companies but Andy one out for November rolling the chart into 2018 last year started with rough parity with AMD launching the APS in January and February and Intel launching its new chipset the next major release date was the 2700 X in April of 2018 up until this point sales pushed higher for AMD March primarily by constant sales on the 1000 series rise in CPUs the strategy of dumping old stock worked well because the motherboard socket is the same users could reasonably be convinced to buy an older Eisen CPU on sale kinks now mostly worked out in BIOS and then upgrade later this allows AMD to develop a market for its new CPUs and fray the edges of Intel's market share even if it has to drop prices in order to start gaining some of that foothold June saw Intel pushing past AMD where we saw a high volume of i7 sales with the stock of i-70 coming back to the market the 9000 series helped Intel regain volume in September and October but AMD again won Black Friday and a large margin we first reported Intel's 14 nanometers shortage at lumen in July of 2018 we had some initial hardware news coverage of it and by November this was a widespread issue into 2019 and tell CPU supply has tilted heavily to system integrators and OMS allowing the DIY market to partly dry up and allowing prices to rise finally in March of 2019 the chart flipped the inverse of the beginning of the chart with high combined sales volume between the two and he held over 80% of total sales to our viewers in march and the now firmly leads Intel in our chart here although average selling price helps Intel maintain similar total revenue through our viewer and reader purchases the next metric to consider is the average selling price despite a dip in sales that has allowed AMD to post more units moved per month in some instances Intel has managed to keep relatively close in total revenue generated with fewer sales to the DIY segment in our audience in 2016 our viewers typically bought Intel CPUs averaging $256 spend with the rarer AMD purchases sticking closer to $104 average most of these were FX CPUs that were getting dumped and hitting the bargain bit 2017 saw ASP increased to 200 $78 for Intel CPUs among our audience with more users trending toward i7 SKUs but still a lot by an i-5 AMD's ASP jumps to $273 with the launch of Rison particularly because of the more expensive r7 series 2018 saw Andy holding steady at around $270 ASP with Intel massively jumping even with the large data sets we're now looking at these later years all the way to $371 ASP this isn't just from gradual price increases as new CPUs have come out but also because Intel purchases have trended away from the core i5 which was popular in 2016 and toward the i7 instead that's because Andy is beginning at this point to grab more of the i5 market with its r5 CPUs something that we recommended heavily when we reviewed the our 5s and thus forcing Intel's ASP up as more users are either going for an r5 or an i7 or maybe an i9 2019 today it has Intel trending at $410 ASP with the users thus far at $212 for the average selling price this is a result of continual shortages for Intel and increasing popularity of the 9900 K while Andy has dropped from the still ongoing sales of rising CPUs CPU serious choices have also shifted over the years for the last quarter of 2016 the i5 CPU is did notably well combining with the i7 s to make up nearly all sales for Intel in fourth quarter of 2016 this was the 6600 caiera which is back when both I 5s and i7 CPUs were for core solutions this is also when most of us were saying quote and i-5 is enough for gaming so it makes sense to see the split 2017 changed that to lean more heavily toward the i7 aligning with the 7700 K the i-5 remained popular and the Pentium series gained popularity the low-end market by undercutting some of AMD's solutions where we really saw the shift was in 2018 or processor shortages and the shifting focus to the high end resulted in the creation of a new market in the i-9 segment particularly with the 9900 K 2019 further solidifies the reduction in I five sales as I nine move to take the place of i5 and i7 CPUs in popularity again this is for a few reasons one is the CPU shortage and Intel's shifting of processor inventory towards system integrators but the larger change is that Andy has taken most media recommendations for the mid-range market at GN we typically recommend an r5 over an i-5 in most use cases and we're not alone if people buy Intel it's trending toward higher end more expensive parts by the company whereas Andy has a wider spread across mid-range part selection moving on to the AMD chart now the AMD chart shows the limited selection in 2016 where we primarily reviewed the AP use that Andy had that year and whatever FX CPUs were left so it makes sense to see that a10 purchases were high that's mostly what we were covering most of the visitors that landed on AMD cv reviews on our site we're reading about the AP performance and so we're more likely to purchase something like an a-10 either way it's not like much else was available outside of FX or AP use in 2017 we saw the split most heavily favored the r7 cpus at over 40% and the total sales volume with the r5 ranked the next highest at over 30% the r3 held about 11 to 12 percent sales volume with threader for making up about 8% of sales volume for AMD FX had a surprisingly high distribution in 2017 but was on the way out this distribution of our seventh r5 is fairly healthy and across the entire stack we get a predictable scatter of samples for Andy Andy did well to push more units at its high end and this continued into 2018 except that the r5 captured more sales from the r7 CPUs and the die in FX CPUs the r3 CP is trended down as they became more focused on Raven Ridge and thread River posted stronger numbers from another release and constant sales of the 1950 acts in 1920 X 2019 has shown a more even split between the r5 and our seven pulling market share away from Intel's i-5 segment and E is really picking up steam here finally and tall needs to get more CPUs out the door first of all needs to fix its shortage issues secondly Intel needs to strengthen its offerings in the mid-range market because right now an i5 is just it's really not compelling in almost all cases the r5 is typically cheaper you got something like 2,600 2,600 X maybe it does well in a lot of applications does better in things like blender on average than Intel it's competitive enough in games that for the r5 it's more justifiable to sacrifice a little bit of potential single thread performance for the balance that you get whereas an r7 there's fiercer competition with the i7 SDI nines and so Intel to really regain that market segment it once held dominantly the i-5 segment it has to release a more convincing offering and it's an interesting strategic play where Andy is constantly putting at CPUs on sale so even if there's lower margin and these doing well to capture more market and in a world where up until recently Andy was just simply not trusted to make a CPU it's important to make sacrifices like margin to just try and bring more people on and get them accustomed to the new rise in processors and try to convince people that look this thing actually works we're serious this time this isn't another bulldozer product so it's it's good strategy from AMD and it's allowed Andy to to really start shifting that sales volume in charge so the longer Intel sacrifices it's made it's mid-range market and the mainstream market for gamers the lower the sales volume will be overall because I 799 although intel is doing well their ASP is trending up for them it's also not high volume or at least not as high volume so what we're left with is Intel's average selling price is going up but that's not just because some of the prices have gone up like the the 9900 K which is clearly more expensive than previous flagships it's primarily because fewer people are buying lower end CPUs from Intel Pentium for example used to be fairly popular and the g35 3568 whatever it was called the G 4560 those CPUs 5600 those were fairly convincing CPUs and in a world where Intel's got constant shortage issues they're not really being made anymore the 5600 the 4560 they were often 80 to $90 and so no one bought them but when they're supposed to be $60 they're pretty compelling so this is Intel's conundrum right now and and Eocene higher volume overall moving to our viewers and readers in the first quarter of 2019 so that's it for this one thank you for watching if you want to support efforts like this you can subscribe to us to catch more videos or you go to stored on cameras axis not net to pick something up like one of our black and blue mouse pads or white and blue if you prefer or our GN cobalt blue beer glasses store that cameras access that for that or patreon.com slash gamers nexus thank you for watching I'll see you all next time
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