Too Good to be True, A Recap of The Lead-up to Zen 2
Too Good to be True, A Recap of The Lead-up to Zen 2
2019-06-04
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back to harbor unbox we have another
casual video today to sort of round out
our coverage we're squeezing this and I
think between our Q&A is that we've done
some of the Q&A stuff sort of touches on
what we want to discuss in this video
but we want to elaborate a bit more on
some of the topics basically we want to
talk about what everything is end to up
until this point what are they worried
about from stuff that Tim covered back
in was it December of last year I think
that's right mm-hmm
so it's we've been having some
interesting conversations and we thought
we'd put them all together in this video
so it's gonna be a casual format we're
just gonna discuss the various things
that have come up and have led to well
where we are now I suppose so basically
for us all the well I suppose there was
some drama with sin 2 and leaks and
whatnot and that all started around was
I think was December 7th I've got a note
here that Tim's news corner episode when
he suggested that the rumors for well
Navi and then two were too good to be
true and there's a whole lot to unpack
there so I guess that's what we're gonna
do in this video is get into it so do
you want to start getting into her ah
well I mean yeah I mean there's so much
to cover us so where do you start thing
I know cuz there's there were so many
different aspects that were touched on
in the leak and sort of we've got
confirmation for a lot of that stuff now
so we sort of split this up in her notes
into a couple of different sections so I
guess we should start with the first one
which is kind of the the pricing
discussion yeah because I think after
the keynote that was probably the thing
that most people were disappointed about
I think you know the performance was
reasonably impressive at least are going
on what Amy showed you know the 8 core
part matching or slightly beating the
9900 k looked good but then they
announced the prices you know three $29
for the
3,700 X 400 dollars or 399 40 3800 X and
people are thinking well you know that's
more expensive than the rise and seven
last gen series by a little bit and
obviously it's much more expensive than
what we saw in the leaks yes but to me I
don't think those complaints are too
valid because it still seems to me if
the performance claims that AMD you know
if they're right that those chips are
still going to be really good value
especially compared to the 9900 K which
retails still for over five hundred US
dollars I think that's right do we check
that on you egg these are the 99 hundred
K yes yes well the price has been moving
out a little bit but yeah it's it's it's
more expensive than the twelve core part
that much I can assure you yeah so yeah
I think the pricing will have
disappointed people because they were
expecting especially for the the risin 5
parts the six core part bit that the
leak was ridiculously low for that would
have been nice but it seemed as we said
too good to be true so we were trying to
caution viewers not to get too excited
about the pricing because we expect
expected it to be pretty well in line
with what we've seen so far from launch
prices and yeah I think it's fair to say
it's pretty much what we've seen the
rise in 526 hundreds two hundred dollars
from memory the 1600 was 220 was the
MSRP then the 2600 came back in at 200
and now the 3600 200 and now we've got
the 3600 X $450 so that pricing was
always what I imagined it was going to
be there was really no surprises there
for me and I think with what they're
offering it's a great deal and it's
certainly better than anything that you
can get elsewhere so I think that's the
key takeaway yeah I think the the thing
about the leak that sort of was
different to what ended up being the
reality was that what ended up being the
six core rise in five parts for the 3000
series were leaked as being rise in
three parts which kind of you know rise
and three has come in at a cheaper price
point in the rise in five so if those
six core parts were rise in three then
you'd be expecting them to be a little
bit cheaper than say the 2600 has been
but they ended up being rise in five
parts and to me that still makes a lot
of sense they're still going to be
highly capable six core CPUs like a six
core CPU for that premium mid-range zone
is something that we weren't really
thinking would happen just a few years
ago yes well Intel's top-end processor
was still a quad core and our AMD is
offering you know what I assumed to be a
very good performance six core CPU that
you know should be 8700 K or there
abouts level performance yeah especially
when overclocked yeah so yeah I mean one
of our key points really that we wanted
to talk about is that hundred-dollar CPU
I think that there was leaked in the
hundred dollar CPU being being six cores
really not something that's ever
happened before no I mean historically
$400 at launch prices you don't get a
whole lot there's never been as far as I
can recall has never been a $100 core i3
upon release they've always been like I
think the cheaper ones have been like a
hundred and seventeen dollars u.s.
around a hundred and twenty dollars us
for a hundred dollars you have to buy a
dual core Pentium processor now with
hyper-threading enabled yeah and then
from AMD it's been well the best we've
ever got really the rise in 3:22 energy
was at 110 dollars USD that was 99 yes
yeah I can't remember what the launch
price was it definitely sold for around
a hundred years yeah
and again that's a quad core so yeah I
think people were expecting well based
on the leaks are a ridiculous leap so a
lot more cause more IPC better memory
support PCIe 4.0 all this stuff yeah it
just was never going to happen and yeah
AMD would be doing something that we've
never seen before with the hundred
dollar price bracket yeah I think that
that moves well into the next discussion
on the pricing stuff which was sort of
the argument that we heard a lot not
just from you know various other
creators but also from our own community
about sort of AMD pricing not
necessarily to the market conditions to
gain money but more to gain market share
so there's always been this sort of
argument you know that they're so far
behind
tell in terms of market share and
they've got this new seven nanometer
technology they've got these new CPUs
that they can offer for a lot cheaper
than Intel CPUs so why don't they just
sell them for ridiculously cheap to gain
a whole ton of market share and to me
it's again it's not really something
that's ever made a whole lot of sense to
me
like I get don't get me wrong I get the
argument that AMD wants more market
share that's a perfectly valid thing for
a company to want but the primary focus
for any company especially a company
that's public like any it has investors
it has stakeholders you know there's
people that you know they need to please
with their strategy as a company you
know market share isn't really something
that tickles the fancy of those
investors yeah if it's not paired with
money yes so if the strategy is we want
a lot more market share and we're gonna
do that while getting money then
investors are gonna be perfectly fine
with that
but when it comes to selling a CPU that
they could sell it for hundred dollars
and then selling that ferb say three
hundred or two hundred dollars then
they're gonna gain a similar market
share but they're just not making as
much money and and again it goes even
further than that because the argument
was sort of like you know they're gonna
gain a lot more money I mean a lot more
market share by selling these CPUs for
cheaper so if an eight core CPU price of
200 dollars that automatically means
more sales but to me I always thought if
they're in tight if the entire range of
rise in 3,000 CPUs is the best value
option in that price category only
doesn't really care whether they're
selling you an eight core or six core
for $200 no because they're still
getting a $200 sale so for the customer
that has $200 available if AMD has the
best value CPU in that price category
they gain $200 no matter what and it's
even more advantageous for AMD to sell a
cheaper to manufacture CPU at that price
point yep so for them the incentive for
AMD is actually just sell you a six core
CPU instead of an eight core for that
price because it cost less to
manufacture and cause actually being and
all that sort of thing so this only
works if AMD has you know really good
value products in all the price points
because then you know Intel at a really
competitive 200 or CPU then may
the AMD would need to you know make the
8-core $200 to be competitive at that
price point exactly which is why we've
always said it's about the current
market conditions yes oh and that
probably leads on to a few other
arguments that we saw one of the
probably one of the most up voted
comments and then the discussion
followed on from that was something I
think you made a comment saying AMD
wouldn't just make they wouldn't have
the prices of the competitors yeah and
then there's a few arguments saying oh
they've done that in the past and a lot
of the arguments were the 1800 X was
priced at half the price of the 69
hundred K but the 1800 X wasn't really
like I get in a lot of workloads that
competed with the 69 oh okay but it
wasn't a direct competitor to
competitive the 600 K for basically
platform reasons and also just wasn't
very consistent so it was really
competing more with the 7700 K which had
half as many cores but for a lot of
workloads was a lot faster because of
IPC lower latency architecture clock
speeds all that sort of stuff and so
they had to sort of price it somewhere
where it made sense if they had have
asked if they had a price that somewhere
between the 77 or okay and the the 69
hundred K that no one would have bought
it because you would have either got you
you're not really in the middle there
you're either 1 or 69 or okay or you
want a 77 or okay so AMD read the market
there and they priced accordingly so but
that's why it appeared to be a great
value for certain workloads that used
the rise in seven processes really well
but then when it was gaming or anything
it was a bit lightly threaded the 700k
was a much better value product I think
a similar thing is sort of happened this
you you know on face value AMD has
undercut Intel's whatever it is what's
their 12 core h EDT process so I'm not
really familiar with those now 79 20x
the biggest myths
so yeah the 3900 X the 12 core rise in
3000 series parts obviously priced at
$500 the intel h EDT part which we don't
know they don't remember the name of his
priced at over
US dollars but again it's aimed he's
still reading the market conditions
there they're not just looking at that
and then taking half the price because
AMD themselves sell a thread Ripper CPU
that has 12 cores in it for not that
much more than you know this new CPU
that they've release so they they can't
suddenly go out and switch from selling
a 12 quart h EDT cpu for what is it like
five or six hundred dollars just
suddenly selling it for $900 yeah it
wouldn't make a lot of sense and as well
Intel's h EDT platforms still offers
features that the am for platform
doesn't offer especially the extra PCIe
lanes I mean it's not a piece of a 4.0
so there is a difference there but there
are still features that that platform
provides that you don't get with the
consumer desktop line which is kind of
why they're still reading those market
conditions and you know pricing
accordingly with their 12 core part so
it looks impressive but there's still
going to be different use cases for
those CPUs yeah something to take away
from this conversation or this part of
the conversation is that its pricing is
always dictated by current market
conditions they're not gonna just come
in and set some completely different
pricing that disrupts their own products
that are in the market their competitors
or they want to be competitive but
they're not gonna go crazy with it and
well going all the way back to late last
year
that's why Tim made the comments he did
it about the pricing appearing to be too
good to be true
and that's yet well not only is that
turned out to be 100% correct on all
levels for all the parts that we've seen
so far but I think it was a reasonable
assessment to make at the time I don't
upset a lot of people because a lot of
people when you hear something you're
wanting here and you have your heart set
on that and then someone tempers your
expectations and says that's probably
not going to happen
I get why we saw a huge amount of
dislikes on that video because we sort
of shouted a few dreams there but and
Tim also had it on good authority mind
you so we were going off what we thought
made sense and what we've seen in the
past what we expected AMD AMD to do and
then we had some very close industry
sources that told us that pricing was
definitely no way
Nia what you would see at Computex now
we also were told late last year it was
around November time that we wouldn't
actually be seeing any of these
processes till Computex and it was gonna
be launched around the X 5:17 chipset so
we knew that a long way out so yeah yeah
and I think again with the sort of the
pricing discussion stuff you again it is
not as good for consumers to have the
prices as that if they were like the
leek they would obviously be better
value for everyone and everyone would be
happy you buy CP it's really cheap
that's great right but at the same time
you know AMD by pricing it where they
have in pricing at to market conditions
but still offering the best value CPU
allows them to make more money and I
sort of I've never really understood
this sort of complain about AMD wanting
to make more money in this infuse
especially from from AMD fans because
AMD making more money means that they
can make their future products better
and if they're selling these products
for ridiculously cheap while that would
be awesome for us as a consumer and you
know I'm always advocating for selling
things as cheaply as they possibly can
be from a namely business perspective it
really helps them not just develop next
generation rising CPUs but hopefully
send some of that research and
development money over to their GPU team
which needs your boots I mean it
ultimately it makes things cheaper for
you anyway because then we just get into
a situation where Amy's giving a less
stuff away they haven't put enough money
back into research and development and
we end up with another bulldozer FX
range until then does nothing for
however long that happened it felt like
forever and yet the markets stagnates
and it all becomes unfun and it's yeah
so and the point about like you know
wanting AMD to crush Intel like that's
another very popular sort of fan comment
that you would we see a lot and yeah
sure if you're a name be found that's
something to we should look out for but
even they don't need to sell a
200-dollar eight core CPU to crush Intel
no all they need to do is make their
entire rise in 3000 series products the
best value on the market in the price
once they're selling for and then you
guys the enthusiasts will buy them
we'll improve their market share that'll
improve you know their brand perception
which is still I think lagging a little
bit behind Intel outside of our market
definitely outside the enthusiasts so by
enthusiasts buying these parts that are
still good value it helps everything in
the AMD ecosystem to improve so
absolutely yeah I'm I'm not disappointed
in these in these prices at all no I
think they're actually quite competitive
it all seems to be very good to me of
course we have to we have to benchmark
them and test them out but I don't think
there were too many surprises there of
course there's a lot of things to
explore I think lastly on price and the
last thing I would just like to say that
we've seen some more recent comments
justifying the prices or at least
blaming us for the prices which it's
very strangest one people are saying
because we said the prices were too good
to be true that AMD took note of that
and we're like oh well let's charge more
which is bizarre because they're just
charging what they have always charged
as I said that that the the 1600 was
what did I say it was 220 and they came
down to 200 for the 2600 and we're there
again for the 3600 so and you're getting
a better a slightly better CPU every
time at this time I think we're getting
quite a substantially better CPU so it
would be bizarre for them to make the
CPU quite a bit better and just about
every regard but then cut the price in
half I don't know a bit baffled by that
one but all I can tell you is it's I
won't use any harsh language on this one
but it's very silly to suggest that
Hardware unboxed and other similar media
outlets have any influence on AMD
pricing I think do you agree yeah I mean
while I would love to think that a
channel of our size with 350 thousand
subscribers has you know the influence
level to influence like a major
corporation in this space in terms of
their pricing yes well from what I
understand it is definitely the
investors the board members the
executives at AMD that are making these
decisions based on market conditions and
making the most money for their
investors which is ultimately who
they're accountable to so our influence
levels around the zero percent mark yeah
it's around there I know we might
influence you know your
you're buying decisions but we're
certainly not influencing aim these
internal strategies no that would be
quite something to learn about so yes I
think that that sort of arguments pretty
ridiculous to be honest yeah we won't we
definitely won't be engaging with those
sort of comments going forward I think
we've explained that one you know it's
um it's all very very silly we should
well we've sort of touched on the
release date and timing stuff a little
bit but there's probably a few more
things that we can talk about there yeah
I mean how I mean where do you begin
with the timing stuff I mean well you
sort of have to go all the way back to
when all this began for us when you
foolishly yeah so the information in one
of your news modes it's kind of for us
in the industry we we know a lot about
aim DS release schedule in terms of when
they're planning events for us to attend
when they want us to fly out and stuff
and I made the comment in that initial
video about the CES stuff because you
know aim they weren't offering to fly us
out to sea yes they were planning it a
tech day in a tech days aim DS big event
where we get in depth architecture
information we get all the details that
we need for the review and usually
that's right before we can get the CPUs
in their hands it'll be like I'll wake
you maybe a couple of weeks before maybe
a month
maximum before and they said these are
big global events so media from all
around the world come yeah usually for
big thing be thing like this there's
like usually just one location yes
sometimes they break it up and do like a
simultaneous thing across a few
different regions but for all these
things that's usually us-based media
from around the world gather in the US
and because it's such a big event and
there's so many things to organize well
I think about two months it's fair to
say in advance we would certainly get
you know usually like a save the date or
something I can make sure that the in
this week or whatever you've got that
time off to come attend our tech day
circle with the CES stuff we hadn't
heard anything we'd heard at the time
about the rise in mobile stuff which was
announced at CES the rise in mobile 3000
series we got that information I don't
know like a month before it was released
or something like that you know we're
his product which is fine so when we
heard about that but we didn't hear
about the rise in desktop stuff well
immediately we knew really that CES was
not going to be the launch time for
those products and then those suspicions
were confirmed when industry sources
reached out to us and said please don't
do a video on this stuff because it's
inaccurate and we're not launching
anything yet so yes yeah there's gonna
be no concrete announcements there may
be a teaser you you talked about all of
this in your serious video yeah that's
right
I mean it's really as simple as that and
you know there was closure at the time
over the announcement versus teaser sure
sure release versus whatever and you
know that language obviously I think
we've learned a lot about you know how
people what people sort of think each of
those terms means but at the end of the
day you weren't getting product
information at the show and that didn't
eventuate for us the wordings really
irrelevant anyway because it turned out
exactly as you said yeah for us we were
just trying to inform our viewers that
you know look I know you guys are
excited we're excited as well but maybe
just put that excitement in check
because it's going to be quite a few
months before you really hear anything
concrete and it's going to be like a q3
thing for what yeah by them and we were
seeing a the reason you covered at news
corner was because we were seeing
hundreds hundreds upon hundreds of
comments and people saying why are you
guys talking about this you know rise in
three thousands coming soon $100 6-quart
that's definitely the one I'm by how
many people did you see the comment
saying that's definitely my neck CPU
hundred dollars six cool you know yeah
so yeah that's why we wanted to make
that video and just let you guys know
that yeah and it's not gonna play out
that way it's important for you I'm sure
for you guys as well to know sort of you
know at least from what we know about
these release schedules because if you
had heard that information in December
and you were planning a PC build in the
next couple of months and you got this
information the CPUs are coming in
January you know cool I'm just gonna
wait and I'm gonna I'm just gonna buy
those CPUs because they're just around
the corner you know it might be
disappointing to hear but I think that
it's better for you guys to have that
information because then you know sort
of well actually
if I'm planning a PC build now might not
be then it might be six months later and
that could change your purchasing
destroy only out go with the CPU now and
then choose to upgrade six months down
the track exactly that was one of the
reasons why we did one of those budget
rising builds around that time to say
well you know the the prices on those
first gen rise and parts are so low now
if you've been holding off for quite
some time and you want a really good
value CPU it might just be worth
grabbing one of those I kind of remember
the prices now but the risin 5 1600 mid
hundred dollars it was it yeah it was it
was dirt cheap I think there was I think
someone posted a comment on Twitter for
I think it might even mean a rise in 718
hundred x it was definitely a first gen
rise in 7 miles on ain't core 16 part
and they bought in the US for one
hundred and thirty dollars at a store
brand new warranty and all so that
that's absolute craziness so and that
comes back to you talking about AMD
giving away the process is basically
we're making them as cheap as possible
if you are after a cheap processor an
excited for one I mean a first
generation part is still very capable
and if you want to cheap editing rig or
whatever or a cheap encoding machine
rendering machine get arisin seven or a
cheap gaming system arisin five sixteen
hundred so again you still have that
upgrade path where that's right when the
legitimate then two parts can't get
yourself a decent quality be 450
motherboard we've been recommending the
msi be 450 tomahawk or the carbon pro if
you can swing for that they're both
pretty much the best quality be for
fifty boards put that on there and it's
happy days so yeah so yeah i mean that's
pretty much that's pretty much the
timing stuff you know we've said before
AMD doesn't reveal this information
unless there's an imminent tech day
obviously around the Computex time
you've gotten information so yeah you
know there's an e3 event coming up as
well where they've got their live stream
drivers stuff so you know tend to is
launching just around the corner you can
sort of pieced together what's happening
there as well with the release date and
timing you know there were lots of
discussion about how you know the specs
pricing release date stuff is all
subject to change I think this is
another point that we want to touch on
is this sort of subject to change thing
but from what we understand at least
with the release date stuff in
particular this stuff is set a long time
ahead like it's not it's not like they
choose two months ahead they're like I
will release it in two months from now
like they've got this schedule locked in
from a long way out so they can plan you
know they look at the schedule they see
well there's Computex here there's III
here there's CES you know our products
gonna be ready for C yes they would have
known that maybe six months ahead of
time to be like no not ready for then
might be ready for Computex
so then they start planning the
logistics around launching then and you
know these are very complicated launches
for a company like AMD it's not like
they can just flick the switch and
release the products onto the market
there's lots of complicated planning
processes that require teams of people
to to execute yep so as far as the
release stuff that as far as I'm aware
that really isn't subject to change too
much outside of a few well even pricing
really isn't either I think did you say
this in your news call remember what you
said back in December but I said
basically we've run a little bit yeah I
said they don't set pricing that far
ahead of time because they want to
assess the market conditions at the time
they release would you I'm not sure
exactly how I worded it but that is kind
of what I meant
yeah people I think thinking back again
this was quite some time ago but people
were challenging that because I said of
course they know what they have to sell
it for and that's not necessarily what
you were saying you were saying actually
they know what they have to sell it for
to make a profit yeah they know how much
the chips are gonna cost from however
many months you want to say ahead of
time you know especially when they start
getting their first engineering samples
in they would have known how much is
this going to cost how much is it going
to cost at scale
you know tsmc gives extremely detailed
information about their process tech so
AMD would know yields yeah and their
projected yields so figuring out how
much it cost to make the chip is not a
big deal but the question has always
been what are their competitors doing
which is the main thing that is key for
what the prices will end up absolutely
you know and we know Intel doesn't
really change move on pricing they've
not yet done
that the only thing that would have
changed it is a new Intel CPU in that
time we're not even necessarily a new
one if they had have decided sales are
slowing they know no longer had
production shortages they had a massive
inventory of these CPUs and they wanted
to do something they've never really
done before not often and that is slash
prices quite literally in half and then
ambien might have had to yeah
adjust a bit and become as competitive
as they possibly could well still make
yeah a reasonable margin I think it goes
back to you when you were bringing up
the the risin 5 through the years you
look at how the pricing has been right
around that $200 mark each CPU when it
launched and I think Intel and AMD both
pretty much do exactly that the one
exception being the 9900 K which
obviously was kind of a core I 9 to
launching a new product here and that
kind of occupied a new price point but
typically generational and generation
instead of companies selling the same
CPU for cheaper they try and sell a
better CPU for the same price so in the
CPU market that can be a true piece of
IPC improvement yeah that's what Intel
us to live it for years so you know it's
not unusual to see you know AMD thinking
we're gonna make a rise in five CPU and
we're gonna sell for $200 I think that
would have been in their plans for quite
some time that might have changed a
little bit depending on say where
Intel's Core i5 CPUs you know learned up
the ninth gen stuff where did that end
up pricing wise but in the at the end of
the day they wouldn't be moving on
pricing to the extent that we saw it
move from the leeks to now I don't think
I would have gone we think we're gonna
sell this at $100 and then so it
actually for $200 I think that's
probably a bit more unrealistic than
reasonable for that and same with the
specs like well Before we jump right in
headfirst into the spec so as I say did
you want to clear up the TDP thing as
well because that's what we good with
specs in TDP yeah okay because in Tim's
original news corner that started all of
this for our involvement in there in the
the Zen to leaked information
Tim basically as I said presented the
information that we had from a really
good industry source that told us that
things like price
and release date in particular which is
what the two things I personally was
concerned about the most told us that
those were very inaccurate and then Tim
did his own analysis just sort of go
well I'm gonna look into this a bit
myself and give my opinion on a few
other things which i think was really
interesting and one of the things he
brought up was TDP which in hindsight
looking back you probably think it was
one of the weaker arguments you made but
it turns out that probably was a
terrible activity after I mean I'm I'm
not gonna say that I got that argument
right because on reflection I don't
think I really did I think that I could
have done a better job on the maths for
that but you know trying to make those
videos for news corn don't have much
time not gonna excuse myself on that one
there but I do want to talk a little bit
about some of the stuff I said cuz yeah
on reflection is kind of I thought I
would be quite wrong on it when I sort
of know in the months afterwards I'm
like maybe you guys are right on this
but at the end of the day we'll talk
about it so that's the whole point okay
so the initially the one initial
comparison I made was the the 2,700 X
versus so the risin 727 or ex existing
part which was eight cos versus the new
12 core 3700 X both of them being
claimed to be a hundred and five watt
parts so by by me in the 3700 ex
obviously we now know that to be an
eight core part but in the leek that was
a twelve core part so I made a big issue
about that because I didn't think it was
realistic to get an extra four cores and
a jump from a three point seven
gigahertz pace on the 2,700 X to a 4.3
gigahertz and 4.3 gigahertz boost to a
four point two gigahertz pace and five
gigahertz boost on 12 cores within the
same TDP yep I thought that didn't
really sound right even knowing the sort
of efficiency claims that T you know
TSMC were able to achieve with seven
nanometers AMD had talked a little bit
publicly about those and I just looked
at that and I thought the games that
you're getting there I'm not really in
line with what we would heard from tsmc
and what they were capable of and you
sort of look at you know the 2700 X does
run pretty close to the 105 or TDP in
terms of its actual
actual power consumption so obviously
the TDP tends to be just a marketing
term it doesn't always reflect exactly
on what the chips will consume power
wise but as far as the 27 its 2700 X is
concerned it's actually quite close so I
thought a lot of those gains especially
getting that amount of clock speed
improvement because as you go up the
clock speed especially those top-end
clock speeds yep adding a hundred extra
megahertz for 200 extra megahertz can
significantly increase the power
consumption whereas adding say 100
megahertz or 200 megahertz to say 3
gigahertz or 2 gigahertz isn't that
significant so I just looked at that and
I thought looked personally to me I
didn't really have much insight or
information on this I'm like that didn't
really look right to me and there was a
few other things as well you know they
had some the leak had some parts that
were say 10 watts different in terms of
their TDP and those parts will clock
significantly differently like you were
getting 4 or 500 megahertz more for ten
extra watts on the TDP I thought doesn't
really look right either and then the
third thing I'm not trying mention all
this in the video because I've just sort
of you know as you get messages on your
phone yeah I didn't mention all of these
in the video because I didn't want to
bore you with all this analysis but the
other thing was the the lake presented
new TD piece that AMD hadn't used before
there was a 50 watt for the 16 yeah and
there was 125 135 watt for the 16
obviously we don't know what the 16 core
is gonna look like yep but the 50 watt
for this for this six core I was like
that doesn't really sound right either
because they would just make it a 45
watt part or 35 watt part whichever TDP
specs they've actually got and if we
look at the lineup today they've got 65
watt 95 105 which is exactly the same as
the 2000 series no so again it's kind of
that mix between the marketing and the
realistic expectations from TSM Sears
process and don't get me wrong 7 enemies
is very impressive but once you start
getting up to that high-end clock speeds
above 4 gigahertz the efficiency drops
off quite a lot and it looks like from
what we're hearing especially Computex
with like you know overclocking wakes
you know can these chips do 5 gigahertz
and all that sort of thing
sounds like the this specs that we have
seen now the existing 4.5 gigahertz
turbos is kind of maxing out almost
tsmc 7 nanometer process yep so yeah
that's the TDP thing again I didn't
think I'd be right in the end and I'm
sort of not claiming that as a win for
myself either but in the end it turns
out that I'm ship was quite a lot lower
within the same TDP than what was
expected yeah I don't know what the
people in the comment section would say
but I'd say you were more right than
wrong on that one as it turned out but
it wasn't something you were you know
that wasn't the hole it wasn't the
foundation of your argument let's say
there was just it was our extra you at
some extra insight you were adding in
some extra yeah I mean when it comes to
assessing these leaks I think it's good
to go through the process of how we sort
of look at leaks and decide what seems
more realistic especially if we haven't
heard a lot from industry sources and
it's just sort of if there's like one
inconsistency in say you get a whole
bunch of information like this leak was
and you're sort of looking through and
if there's like one thing that you think
is not quite right like you know the
pricing is slightly off for some spec is
slightly off that knot isn't necessarily
going to discount the entire leak
because we understand that especially
people they get this information quite
early and not necessarily going to have
everything a hundred percent spot on
things are genuinely subject to change
to some degree but then when you sort of
look at multiple different components of
a leak and things like the pricing don't
really seem realistic the release dates
you know we we were basically told those
weren't correct but also they didn't
look correct from what what we sort of
knew and then you add in things like
these TDPS don't really look right you
know the clock speeds looked higher than
realistic for what we think the CPUs and
process technology can do and it's sort
of the culmination of all of those
different things can lead us to discount
a leak like this as not being real yes
whereas something there are plenty of
leaks that look more realistic and we
sort of are on the side more of caution
of that turn out to then be accurate and
I think looking back like I think the
the leaks for the 16 60 TI
through to 1650 in contrast to the Rison
3000 leaks a lot of that information was
fairly close to what those products
ended up being in terms of your naming
no one really thought 1660 that sounds a
bit strange turns out they use 1660 on
all of the coup de coeur counts and
although for those GPUs turned out to be
pretty close you know not accurate but
pretty close yeah whereas a leak like
this you sort of look out and you're
like again there's just too many things
not adding up and if there's too many
things not adding up then generally when
we're not gonna side with it so that
that's kind of our process internally
for how we sort of look at these things
and a lot of the things that we we don't
think of real or don't think are based
in the news and a real leak we just
don't cover because we don't think it's
interesting we're not a leak Channel we
don't want to put information out there
that we think is is not going to be
close enough to the real products yeah
sure but because we got so many comments
about this one particular leak we're
like I guess we've got to cover this and
we did yeah Tim foolishly talked about
it and upset a few people but anyway
that happens
geez mate I reckon you can take this one
I've talked about this bit I guess the
next thing of I suppose we should just
move into this the 16-core part because
that's what everyone's been talking
about and of course this was in the
leaked stuff as well the rumours
everyone it's all everyone seems to talk
about is an a m416 core part and we've
talked about it in our Q&A series
probably part one we're not yesterday's
we touched on it there a little bit we
don't have I suppose too much more to
say since well elaborate on what we've
already said but I guess I'll just
quickly recap that so yeah and it's
interesting I suppose since then we've
spoken to a lot of people other media
some some big names in the YouTube space
and and tech sites and it's interesting
because they all pretty much I've
actually heard anyone agree with our
take on things yeah probably I don't
know what that means for us but anyway
as we've said it's just a guess
it's nothing more than that we have
honestly no idea when a 16 corp you know
we come in with Tim and I've had quite a
few lengthy discussions about this and
again to just interrupt you a little bit
I think as well it doesn't sound like
many other people really know like
concrete information know everyone
everyone's doing it guess yes everyone
yes that's a good thing to add though
everyone I've spoken to who's having a
guess has guessed the complete opposite
thing determined myself
so again what I don't get I don't know I
don't know what that means for us yeah
but so we're pretty confident that you
won't see a 16-core a.m. for part this
year I'm confident okay I mean I think
it's more likely I was going to say I
was going to follow up by saying having
said that they could quite easily
release one a week or two after they
really saw the other parts again we have
absolutely no idea and I'll explain
thought process and why we think they
won't release it till next year possibly
the rise in 4000 series which I've been
calling Zen to plus but it's really Zen
three but it's a seven nanometer plus
deal anyway everyone seems to think
it'll come like a month or so a month or
two after the release we see next month
the July release and we think that won't
happen and I suppose those reasons now
so one of the reasons is we just don't
see the need for a Mt AMD to do it I
think that's probably the biggest reason
yeah again going back to the market
conditions that's right there's really
no reason for them to push out a 16 core
mainstream part when they don't have to
everyone's excited for the 12 core part
it seems like that's going to give them
99 or okay a really hard time probably
going to be a much better value by than
the 99 okay especially if you're doing
again a lot of core heavy workloads
rendering encouraging light sort of
stuff I think for gaming they're
probably going to be so close that it's
not really gonna matter but again we'll
we'll know more about that soon so I
think they'll keep that in their back
pocket I know I would yeah I would keep
that my back pocket for rise in 4,000
because we know next year that next step
will be coming and we're not expecting
any huge IPC changes there are any major
changes really it'll be sort of a Zen
plus type deal so having a 16 core part
to offer them would make that release
really exciting so to us that makes
sense and a lot of people have been
saying but there's six
all parts on the showroom floor so
clearly the 16 core parts coming like
straightaway and our thought process
there is well we know the 16 core part
exists it clearly exists they have to
make a 16 core part to make a 12 core
part assuming that they're not using
defective dyes and whatnot but there'll
be plenty of they'll be plenty of 12
core parts that are fully working 16
core parts with two of the cause in each
of the triplets disabled so I think the
16 core parts that we're hearing a lot
about and seeing and people are
overclocking it's just obvious that the
motherboard vendors have those so they
can validate their motherboards or
design their motherboards with the 16
core part in mind because it's clearly
coming at some point we just don't know
when so if there's a CPU we know that's
coming it makes sense to design the
boards the X 570 boards now with that
chip in mind because there's gonna be
overclocking and whatnot so they want to
make sure that their boards can slot in
the 16 core part and overclock the hell
out of it so and it's kind of like a
thread ripper 2990 WX situation we had
to see a whole refresh of X 399
motherboards or at least flagship boards
to support that chip to its full
capabilities overclock it and whatnot
but if you know when the X 399 ships
that came out AMD sort of said well
we're gonna have like these 300 400 watt
parts so maybe make sure the vrm can
handle that with ease there wouldn't
have been a need to refresh the boards
yeah III think that's I think if I
covered everything there well is there
anything else that we've yeah I think
you know earlier today we were sort of
putting it into almost like you 2
columns and sort of saying you know
which of these columns makes more sense
you know so column one would be release
it now we're relatively soon you sort of
think what what makes sense from AMD's
perspective in terms of you know doing
that release now as opposed to later and
you think of well first of all they have
the 16 core part available to them so
that's one thing that would allow them
to do it now and then you know they want
to impress people or they could you know
there's interest in it so it would sell
you know motherboards are designed for
this chip already so they could release
it now those are sort of things in the
first
and you think what would make one of the
reasons that would make sense to release
it later and it's all the things that
you've just been talking about things
like well we might not be expecting too
much
IPC or clock speed gains with rise in
4,000 so by having another higher core
count part available for that line it
suddenly adds interest and it makes that
line exciting and could generate more
sales than they would otherwise have
gotten next year for their CPUs that's
one of them the other one is there's not
too much pressure from Intel in terms of
their you know CPUs on the mainstream
desktop line so there's really not going
to be you know a part that's going to
compete with a 16 core for me until at
least soon we've we don't expect yeah so
that's one of them the other one is you
know they've still got a release a third
generation the thread Ripper platform so
if they had released the 16 core part
now and then attempted to release a 16
core thread rip apart afterwards then
that 16 core part probably isn't going
to get too many sales because a lot of
the interest will just be in a m4
platform whereas by doing it the other
way around in releasing thread Ripper
first they could perhaps get some sales
for that 16 core part you know before
they can release the 16-core aim for
parts that's another thing that makes a
lot of sense there there's to a lesser
degree
there's the naming the namings also
because they weren't attentionally and
pretty much have to make it like will
arise an 11 part I don't know it's gonna
start getting a bit out of control
whereas they could call you know the
right if they wanted to stick with
Verizon 9 I know there's the whole core
count difference thing but it could be
you know the riser nine 4900 X yeah for
the next later next year I know it's not
a particularly great argument because
they could very easily have a 39 20 X a
3958 really trying to either way we're
just we think might happen so again this
is all just pure guesswork and it's just
what we hear will happen I'm just gonna
say like I know that argument isn't
particularly great but at the same time
I would be leaning more towards than
releasing a 16 core part this year if
they hadn't called the 12 core the 3900
if they'd left an obvious yeah if
there's less for if they did called the
the 3900 X was
actually the 3,800 X then that would
have that perfect slot right there that
would sort of be you'd be teased toward
to be like oh look 3,900 X is right
there for them to use yeah for the 16
core pup but they released the 12 core
with that name which to be honest did
surprise me at the launch I wasn't
expecting that part to be called that
hmm
so to me that uh that was kind of an
indication I wouldn't want to read into
it too much but the companies do plan
out these naming schemes quite far in
advance and I wouldn't be surprised if
the thread Ripper line was actually the
lineup that used 39 20 X 30 950 x 39 90
X and those worthy 16 24 and 32 core
parts through and written parts yeah I
mean again just a guess but so that
makes that's right this is this is what
we're guessing at the moment so the
stuff we spoke of earlier that's really
a recap of what was said previously and
what we've ended up with and sort of
what we said initially there and it's
the same thing with the 16 core part so
a lot of people took Tim's 16 core at 5
gigahertz or whatever the thumbnails I
honestly can't recall yeah but it said
it's good spam now good job you did a
great job Jim it says too good to be
true at the bottom under that and I
think a lot of people just took it as
we're saying that a 16 core a.m. for
processor is simply too good to be true
it was much more than that so Tim was
never never once in that video said that
there won't be a 16 core process or even
questioned the existence of a 16 core
price actually well I went back and
watched the video just before we were
going to film this and I actually said
that a lot of the naming and core count
stuff seemed pretty reasonable to me
that was the most reasonable puzzle they
thought the names and the core count
that's certainly certainly the easiest
thing to guess
absolutely the core countin names not
necessarily frequencies in TDPS that's a
bit more tricky yeah
but especially after they announced the
triplet design previously with is in
there stuff yep so so yeah Tim Tim was
never saying that a 16 core part was too
good to be true or even questioned the
existence of one and yeah there's
obviously going to be one we're still
not saying there won't be but we're just
questioning when it will be released and
we think it'll be next year
but time we love to be wrong yeah that
would be great yeah we love testing CP
maybe a lot more stuff to test this year
and that would probably mean as well
that for Zen 3 they've got some pretty
exciting stuff to hype that launch up as
well yeah and beyond a few percent IPC
increase yeah and you know the too good
to be true thing was really about
everything the 16 core part clocking up
to more than 5 gigahertz and that being
priced at what was it like 450 or 500
dollars I should say it was the whole
thing it was the entire story for each
part it was you know it all seemed too
good to be true like some of it might
have been true you know weren't saying
it was all invalid but just as a package
deal it seemed to be true yeah so and
yeah unfortunately it kind of was well
it was always going to be and that's
unfortunately why we're seeing I think
there's a lot of talking our
announcement video about it being
disappointing which is I don't agree
with that yeah it's disappointing to see
because it's really not like this this
is end to step from AMD again we haven't
tested it but what we're expecting what
we've heard on the showroom floor from
people who have tested it it's going to
be a pretty phenomenal step and it's
going to be really exciting so nothing
to be disappointed about but yeah I
think this is kind of why we don't
really cover leaks and rumors or like -
like these sort of leaks in general
because imagine if this leak hadn't
happened and there was no information or
no no information of this degree about
the Rison 3000 line and then it gets to
launch and I would imagine people would
actually be amazed that AMD has a ninety
nine hundred K capable part that not
only is 65 watts but also is costing you
$200 less than 99 hundred K oh yeah yeah
that from from that perspective not
knowing anything and coming in seeing
that product and you come away from it
pretty impressed but when you come from
the perspective of being suggested that
there might be this you know cheap part
that's I think is it would I think
there's a discussion it's quite
interesting I know a lot of our viewers
and a lot of people are in the tech
scene
love discussing this thing these sort of
stuff and speculating they have a lot of
fun doing it and it's quite
thought-provoking and I don't really
have anything against that it's when and
it's hard to do this because people jump
to conclusions on all sorts of stuff but
it's well it sort of presented as being
more fact like yeah yeah yeah it's I
know it's a really tough one to to
tackle it's one of the reasons why we
just don't touch it because we don't
like to mislead at all we try to avoid
that best we can we try to provide you
guys with the most accurate information
we can and the only way we can really do
that is when we get official information
so we just hold out and wait and because
we hear all kinds of things and we'd
love to sort of spill the beans on a few
things and but we don't know if that's
gonna be accurate and then we get
mislead you guys it's not great for our
credibility so yeah we always just hold
out and wait and yeah that's what we
sorted you on this one I mean Tim
discussed the leaks cuz you guys asked
him to when he gave you his opinion and
anyway it's played out the way it has so
yeah that that's that really I mean yeah
at this point we're just gonna move on
now we really just want to test them and
see what they're really all about and
yeah yeah I mean you know it's
unfortunate that you know the leak ended
up being wrong you know you kind of feel
for the people that get this information
they publish it they stand by and it
turns out to be incorrect because you
know that can hit people hard and I
think you know it's it's a tough game
being in the leakin and room again we
see the you know there's a lot of sites
out there that are focused on on this
content and you know you kind of live
and die by these sort of things I mean
it is fun and exciting but at the same
time people do get really caught up in
it so I'm not some of the people
creating it the people watching it like
they're already making imaginary
purchases based on this information a
lot of it is said you know we're
speculating here or some of this is
based on leaked information and so
therefore we're making this speculation
or take it with a grain of salt
whatever that or people just hear what
they want to hear and a lot of people
heard 6-core Xen 2 processor 12 threads
for $100 coming in the next few months
yes that's what you know
when you see these leaks and you're sort
of looking into them yourself you know
maybe we don't comment them on whatever
you know just keeping in mind is a sort
of you know potential but you know as
always take everything with a grain of
salt and don't believe any rumour that
you see ahead of launch as a hard-coded
fact no matter what the sort of you know
track record of people are you know
there's obviously people in the industry
that tend to be leaning more on the
accurate side there's people that people
you know quite clearly say aren't
accurate but no matter who it is it's
just better to think of it as not
accurate until you see the information
or take it with a grain of salt and then
especially when it turns out not to be
accurate don't go around blasting people
into the next century because they
haven't got it right
you know I it's not something I like to
see yes it's not good and it's not a
good for the it's not good for the
community because you create a it's a
sort of a toxic environment for the
community to have it really has lasted
for leaks not being correct and and it
goes both ways as well when you hear a
leak and then someone says that either
they've got information that contradicts
that or maybe that just doesn't seem
like it you know that's how it'll go ok
well I'll take that on board yeah don't
don't get very upset and we did see a
lot of people get really upset with with
what Tim said as well so that yeah that
goes both ways but yeah there's you have
no real reason to get super upset with
someone that yeah that was just really
passionate about this stuff and yeah
anyway I think that's I mean it's good
to see the passion from the community
about you know from these products and
getting excited about leaks and stuff
but you know going around and attacking
people is doesn't make a nice
environment to operate in for these
people and sort of you know we want to
have as many people creating you know
good quality content and analysis and
discussion as we possibly can and this
sort of thing can discourage people from
making making content which I think we
don't don't really want to see no matter
who it is so yeah exactly
yeah so yeah that's well certain hope
everyone's enjoyed this really casual so
of discussion Tim and I have talked
about this stuff a bit we talked about
so much at the show probably too much
just about lost my voice and yeah it's
been a long show but it's been good and
yeah well I hope you guys enjoyed this
anyway so it was a reasonably well
structured it was about we didn't really
do any planning we obviously have no
teleprompter no script we've got a
couple of rough notes on our phone but
yeah timid like I said timid I've had
this discussion back and forth a bit and
I keep saying this is stuff we should be
doing on camera because I think our
viewers would be interested so we've sat
down for an hour now yeah hope you
enjoyed this hour-long episode yeah it's
not something we often do on the channel
I'm really really itching to get back
home I want to do some preliminary
testing I've promised you guys that are
five sixteen hundred versus seventy
seven okay revisit see how they're
getting on today in the latest
applications and games plenty of things
that Tim wants to do so we'll get back
to a usual sort of schedule stuff soon
and then you know when the release date
is for all the Zen to stuff and then I
think I'm probably not going to sleep
for it cieariy think there's a lot of
stuff coming so I mean for people that
are interested in like launches and
announcements and stuff
it's only a week until a three which
means only a week until we get you know
Navi information from what we understand
until they'll be in your super
announcement is they'll potentially at
least what we understand III as well it
almost certainly be some juicy news
coming sorry yeah and on top of that you
know we obviously don't cover consoles
like game console is gonna be a big
thing at e3 so I think as far as e3 s go
and games this is one of probably the
biggest shows in quite some time in
terms of and it's surprising to see you
know product announcements in our space
in terms of PC enthusiasts being
announced around at e3 time because you
kind of think Computex or maybe CES is
is typical Gamescom or one of those
shows but to see all this stuff coming
at e3 is just gonna make that show a
really bumpa one this year so yeah will
be a lot of stuff to cover next week I
think
not the way you're attending e3 but well
I was sitting at home in Australia yeah
a lot of interests don't cover the news
as it comes out and give our
piƱon on things yeah there'll be that
but anyway I think we should probably
wrap this up you know
I would agree yep hope need some water
yeah I just need some water it's very
humid here and then it's extremely dry
in the hotel so it makes it quite
difficult for talking especially when
you were talking all night we had a good
catch up with some other media last
night so yeah it's been a really good
show for us and we've had a lot of fun
hopefully you guys have enjoyed our
coverage yeah and yeah anyway thanks for
watching like subscribe do all that
standard stuff thumbs up and all that
and yeah thanks for watching
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