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Too Good to be True, A Recap of The Lead-up to Zen 2

2019-06-04
firstly a big THANK YOU to msi for making it possible for hardware box to attend Computex 2019 please check out their latest gaming and create a desktop range powered by Intel Core ninth gen processes via the link in the description also a thank you to Corsair for their support check out their new products again via links below welcome back to harbor unbox we have another casual video today to sort of round out our coverage we're squeezing this and I think between our Q&A is that we've done some of the Q&A stuff sort of touches on what we want to discuss in this video but we want to elaborate a bit more on some of the topics basically we want to talk about what everything is end to up until this point what are they worried about from stuff that Tim covered back in was it December of last year I think that's right mm-hmm so it's we've been having some interesting conversations and we thought we'd put them all together in this video so it's gonna be a casual format we're just gonna discuss the various things that have come up and have led to well where we are now I suppose so basically for us all the well I suppose there was some drama with sin 2 and leaks and whatnot and that all started around was I think was December 7th I've got a note here that Tim's news corner episode when he suggested that the rumors for well Navi and then two were too good to be true and there's a whole lot to unpack there so I guess that's what we're gonna do in this video is get into it so do you want to start getting into her ah well I mean yeah I mean there's so much to cover us so where do you start thing I know cuz there's there were so many different aspects that were touched on in the leak and sort of we've got confirmation for a lot of that stuff now so we sort of split this up in her notes into a couple of different sections so I guess we should start with the first one which is kind of the the pricing discussion yeah because I think after the keynote that was probably the thing that most people were disappointed about I think you know the performance was reasonably impressive at least are going on what Amy showed you know the 8 core part matching or slightly beating the 9900 k looked good but then they announced the prices you know three $29 for the 3,700 X 400 dollars or 399 40 3800 X and people are thinking well you know that's more expensive than the rise and seven last gen series by a little bit and obviously it's much more expensive than what we saw in the leaks yes but to me I don't think those complaints are too valid because it still seems to me if the performance claims that AMD you know if they're right that those chips are still going to be really good value especially compared to the 9900 K which retails still for over five hundred US dollars I think that's right do we check that on you egg these are the 99 hundred K yes yes well the price has been moving out a little bit but yeah it's it's it's more expensive than the twelve core part that much I can assure you yeah so yeah I think the pricing will have disappointed people because they were expecting especially for the the risin 5 parts the six core part bit that the leak was ridiculously low for that would have been nice but it seemed as we said too good to be true so we were trying to caution viewers not to get too excited about the pricing because we expect expected it to be pretty well in line with what we've seen so far from launch prices and yeah I think it's fair to say it's pretty much what we've seen the rise in 526 hundreds two hundred dollars from memory the 1600 was 220 was the MSRP then the 2600 came back in at 200 and now the 3600 200 and now we've got the 3600 X $450 so that pricing was always what I imagined it was going to be there was really no surprises there for me and I think with what they're offering it's a great deal and it's certainly better than anything that you can get elsewhere so I think that's the key takeaway yeah I think the the thing about the leak that sort of was different to what ended up being the reality was that what ended up being the six core rise in five parts for the 3000 series were leaked as being rise in three parts which kind of you know rise and three has come in at a cheaper price point in the rise in five so if those six core parts were rise in three then you'd be expecting them to be a little bit cheaper than say the 2600 has been but they ended up being rise in five parts and to me that still makes a lot of sense they're still going to be highly capable six core CPUs like a six core CPU for that premium mid-range zone is something that we weren't really thinking would happen just a few years ago yes well Intel's top-end processor was still a quad core and our AMD is offering you know what I assumed to be a very good performance six core CPU that you know should be 8700 K or there abouts level performance yeah especially when overclocked yeah so yeah I mean one of our key points really that we wanted to talk about is that hundred-dollar CPU I think that there was leaked in the hundred dollar CPU being being six cores really not something that's ever happened before no I mean historically $400 at launch prices you don't get a whole lot there's never been as far as I can recall has never been a $100 core i3 upon release they've always been like I think the cheaper ones have been like a hundred and seventeen dollars u.s. around a hundred and twenty dollars us for a hundred dollars you have to buy a dual core Pentium processor now with hyper-threading enabled yeah and then from AMD it's been well the best we've ever got really the rise in 3:22 energy was at 110 dollars USD that was 99 yes yeah I can't remember what the launch price was it definitely sold for around a hundred years yeah and again that's a quad core so yeah I think people were expecting well based on the leaks are a ridiculous leap so a lot more cause more IPC better memory support PCIe 4.0 all this stuff yeah it just was never going to happen and yeah AMD would be doing something that we've never seen before with the hundred dollar price bracket yeah I think that that moves well into the next discussion on the pricing stuff which was sort of the argument that we heard a lot not just from you know various other creators but also from our own community about sort of AMD pricing not necessarily to the market conditions to gain money but more to gain market share so there's always been this sort of argument you know that they're so far behind tell in terms of market share and they've got this new seven nanometer technology they've got these new CPUs that they can offer for a lot cheaper than Intel CPUs so why don't they just sell them for ridiculously cheap to gain a whole ton of market share and to me it's again it's not really something that's ever made a whole lot of sense to me like I get don't get me wrong I get the argument that AMD wants more market share that's a perfectly valid thing for a company to want but the primary focus for any company especially a company that's public like any it has investors it has stakeholders you know there's people that you know they need to please with their strategy as a company you know market share isn't really something that tickles the fancy of those investors yeah if it's not paired with money yes so if the strategy is we want a lot more market share and we're gonna do that while getting money then investors are gonna be perfectly fine with that but when it comes to selling a CPU that they could sell it for hundred dollars and then selling that ferb say three hundred or two hundred dollars then they're gonna gain a similar market share but they're just not making as much money and and again it goes even further than that because the argument was sort of like you know they're gonna gain a lot more money I mean a lot more market share by selling these CPUs for cheaper so if an eight core CPU price of 200 dollars that automatically means more sales but to me I always thought if they're in tight if the entire range of rise in 3,000 CPUs is the best value option in that price category only doesn't really care whether they're selling you an eight core or six core for $200 no because they're still getting a $200 sale so for the customer that has $200 available if AMD has the best value CPU in that price category they gain $200 no matter what and it's even more advantageous for AMD to sell a cheaper to manufacture CPU at that price point yep so for them the incentive for AMD is actually just sell you a six core CPU instead of an eight core for that price because it cost less to manufacture and cause actually being and all that sort of thing so this only works if AMD has you know really good value products in all the price points because then you know Intel at a really competitive 200 or CPU then may the AMD would need to you know make the 8-core $200 to be competitive at that price point exactly which is why we've always said it's about the current market conditions yes oh and that probably leads on to a few other arguments that we saw one of the probably one of the most up voted comments and then the discussion followed on from that was something I think you made a comment saying AMD wouldn't just make they wouldn't have the prices of the competitors yeah and then there's a few arguments saying oh they've done that in the past and a lot of the arguments were the 1800 X was priced at half the price of the 69 hundred K but the 1800 X wasn't really like I get in a lot of workloads that competed with the 69 oh okay but it wasn't a direct competitor to competitive the 600 K for basically platform reasons and also just wasn't very consistent so it was really competing more with the 7700 K which had half as many cores but for a lot of workloads was a lot faster because of IPC lower latency architecture clock speeds all that sort of stuff and so they had to sort of price it somewhere where it made sense if they had have asked if they had a price that somewhere between the 77 or okay and the the 69 hundred K that no one would have bought it because you would have either got you you're not really in the middle there you're either 1 or 69 or okay or you want a 77 or okay so AMD read the market there and they priced accordingly so but that's why it appeared to be a great value for certain workloads that used the rise in seven processes really well but then when it was gaming or anything it was a bit lightly threaded the 700k was a much better value product I think a similar thing is sort of happened this you you know on face value AMD has undercut Intel's whatever it is what's their 12 core h EDT process so I'm not really familiar with those now 79 20x the biggest myths so yeah the 3900 X the 12 core rise in 3000 series parts obviously priced at $500 the intel h EDT part which we don't know they don't remember the name of his priced at over US dollars but again it's aimed he's still reading the market conditions there they're not just looking at that and then taking half the price because AMD themselves sell a thread Ripper CPU that has 12 cores in it for not that much more than you know this new CPU that they've release so they they can't suddenly go out and switch from selling a 12 quart h EDT cpu for what is it like five or six hundred dollars just suddenly selling it for $900 yeah it wouldn't make a lot of sense and as well Intel's h EDT platforms still offers features that the am for platform doesn't offer especially the extra PCIe lanes I mean it's not a piece of a 4.0 so there is a difference there but there are still features that that platform provides that you don't get with the consumer desktop line which is kind of why they're still reading those market conditions and you know pricing accordingly with their 12 core part so it looks impressive but there's still going to be different use cases for those CPUs yeah something to take away from this conversation or this part of the conversation is that its pricing is always dictated by current market conditions they're not gonna just come in and set some completely different pricing that disrupts their own products that are in the market their competitors or they want to be competitive but they're not gonna go crazy with it and well going all the way back to late last year that's why Tim made the comments he did it about the pricing appearing to be too good to be true and that's yet well not only is that turned out to be 100% correct on all levels for all the parts that we've seen so far but I think it was a reasonable assessment to make at the time I don't upset a lot of people because a lot of people when you hear something you're wanting here and you have your heart set on that and then someone tempers your expectations and says that's probably not going to happen I get why we saw a huge amount of dislikes on that video because we sort of shouted a few dreams there but and Tim also had it on good authority mind you so we were going off what we thought made sense and what we've seen in the past what we expected AMD AMD to do and then we had some very close industry sources that told us that pricing was definitely no way Nia what you would see at Computex now we also were told late last year it was around November time that we wouldn't actually be seeing any of these processes till Computex and it was gonna be launched around the X 5:17 chipset so we knew that a long way out so yeah yeah and I think again with the sort of the pricing discussion stuff you again it is not as good for consumers to have the prices as that if they were like the leek they would obviously be better value for everyone and everyone would be happy you buy CP it's really cheap that's great right but at the same time you know AMD by pricing it where they have in pricing at to market conditions but still offering the best value CPU allows them to make more money and I sort of I've never really understood this sort of complain about AMD wanting to make more money in this infuse especially from from AMD fans because AMD making more money means that they can make their future products better and if they're selling these products for ridiculously cheap while that would be awesome for us as a consumer and you know I'm always advocating for selling things as cheaply as they possibly can be from a namely business perspective it really helps them not just develop next generation rising CPUs but hopefully send some of that research and development money over to their GPU team which needs your boots I mean it ultimately it makes things cheaper for you anyway because then we just get into a situation where Amy's giving a less stuff away they haven't put enough money back into research and development and we end up with another bulldozer FX range until then does nothing for however long that happened it felt like forever and yet the markets stagnates and it all becomes unfun and it's yeah so and the point about like you know wanting AMD to crush Intel like that's another very popular sort of fan comment that you would we see a lot and yeah sure if you're a name be found that's something to we should look out for but even they don't need to sell a 200-dollar eight core CPU to crush Intel no all they need to do is make their entire rise in 3000 series products the best value on the market in the price once they're selling for and then you guys the enthusiasts will buy them we'll improve their market share that'll improve you know their brand perception which is still I think lagging a little bit behind Intel outside of our market definitely outside the enthusiasts so by enthusiasts buying these parts that are still good value it helps everything in the AMD ecosystem to improve so absolutely yeah I'm I'm not disappointed in these in these prices at all no I think they're actually quite competitive it all seems to be very good to me of course we have to we have to benchmark them and test them out but I don't think there were too many surprises there of course there's a lot of things to explore I think lastly on price and the last thing I would just like to say that we've seen some more recent comments justifying the prices or at least blaming us for the prices which it's very strangest one people are saying because we said the prices were too good to be true that AMD took note of that and we're like oh well let's charge more which is bizarre because they're just charging what they have always charged as I said that that the the 1600 was what did I say it was 220 and they came down to 200 for the 2600 and we're there again for the 3600 so and you're getting a better a slightly better CPU every time at this time I think we're getting quite a substantially better CPU so it would be bizarre for them to make the CPU quite a bit better and just about every regard but then cut the price in half I don't know a bit baffled by that one but all I can tell you is it's I won't use any harsh language on this one but it's very silly to suggest that Hardware unboxed and other similar media outlets have any influence on AMD pricing I think do you agree yeah I mean while I would love to think that a channel of our size with 350 thousand subscribers has you know the influence level to influence like a major corporation in this space in terms of their pricing yes well from what I understand it is definitely the investors the board members the executives at AMD that are making these decisions based on market conditions and making the most money for their investors which is ultimately who they're accountable to so our influence levels around the zero percent mark yeah it's around there I know we might influence you know your you're buying decisions but we're certainly not influencing aim these internal strategies no that would be quite something to learn about so yes I think that that sort of arguments pretty ridiculous to be honest yeah we won't we definitely won't be engaging with those sort of comments going forward I think we've explained that one you know it's um it's all very very silly we should well we've sort of touched on the release date and timing stuff a little bit but there's probably a few more things that we can talk about there yeah I mean how I mean where do you begin with the timing stuff I mean well you sort of have to go all the way back to when all this began for us when you foolishly yeah so the information in one of your news modes it's kind of for us in the industry we we know a lot about aim DS release schedule in terms of when they're planning events for us to attend when they want us to fly out and stuff and I made the comment in that initial video about the CES stuff because you know aim they weren't offering to fly us out to sea yes they were planning it a tech day in a tech days aim DS big event where we get in depth architecture information we get all the details that we need for the review and usually that's right before we can get the CPUs in their hands it'll be like I'll wake you maybe a couple of weeks before maybe a month maximum before and they said these are big global events so media from all around the world come yeah usually for big thing be thing like this there's like usually just one location yes sometimes they break it up and do like a simultaneous thing across a few different regions but for all these things that's usually us-based media from around the world gather in the US and because it's such a big event and there's so many things to organize well I think about two months it's fair to say in advance we would certainly get you know usually like a save the date or something I can make sure that the in this week or whatever you've got that time off to come attend our tech day circle with the CES stuff we hadn't heard anything we'd heard at the time about the rise in mobile stuff which was announced at CES the rise in mobile 3000 series we got that information I don't know like a month before it was released or something like that you know we're his product which is fine so when we heard about that but we didn't hear about the rise in desktop stuff well immediately we knew really that CES was not going to be the launch time for those products and then those suspicions were confirmed when industry sources reached out to us and said please don't do a video on this stuff because it's inaccurate and we're not launching anything yet so yes yeah there's gonna be no concrete announcements there may be a teaser you you talked about all of this in your serious video yeah that's right I mean it's really as simple as that and you know there was closure at the time over the announcement versus teaser sure sure release versus whatever and you know that language obviously I think we've learned a lot about you know how people what people sort of think each of those terms means but at the end of the day you weren't getting product information at the show and that didn't eventuate for us the wordings really irrelevant anyway because it turned out exactly as you said yeah for us we were just trying to inform our viewers that you know look I know you guys are excited we're excited as well but maybe just put that excitement in check because it's going to be quite a few months before you really hear anything concrete and it's going to be like a q3 thing for what yeah by them and we were seeing a the reason you covered at news corner was because we were seeing hundreds hundreds upon hundreds of comments and people saying why are you guys talking about this you know rise in three thousands coming soon $100 6-quart that's definitely the one I'm by how many people did you see the comment saying that's definitely my neck CPU hundred dollars six cool you know yeah so yeah that's why we wanted to make that video and just let you guys know that yeah and it's not gonna play out that way it's important for you I'm sure for you guys as well to know sort of you know at least from what we know about these release schedules because if you had heard that information in December and you were planning a PC build in the next couple of months and you got this information the CPUs are coming in January you know cool I'm just gonna wait and I'm gonna I'm just gonna buy those CPUs because they're just around the corner you know it might be disappointing to hear but I think that it's better for you guys to have that information because then you know sort of well actually if I'm planning a PC build now might not be then it might be six months later and that could change your purchasing destroy only out go with the CPU now and then choose to upgrade six months down the track exactly that was one of the reasons why we did one of those budget rising builds around that time to say well you know the the prices on those first gen rise and parts are so low now if you've been holding off for quite some time and you want a really good value CPU it might just be worth grabbing one of those I kind of remember the prices now but the risin 5 1600 mid hundred dollars it was it yeah it was it was dirt cheap I think there was I think someone posted a comment on Twitter for I think it might even mean a rise in 718 hundred x it was definitely a first gen rise in 7 miles on ain't core 16 part and they bought in the US for one hundred and thirty dollars at a store brand new warranty and all so that that's absolute craziness so and that comes back to you talking about AMD giving away the process is basically we're making them as cheap as possible if you are after a cheap processor an excited for one I mean a first generation part is still very capable and if you want to cheap editing rig or whatever or a cheap encoding machine rendering machine get arisin seven or a cheap gaming system arisin five sixteen hundred so again you still have that upgrade path where that's right when the legitimate then two parts can't get yourself a decent quality be 450 motherboard we've been recommending the msi be 450 tomahawk or the carbon pro if you can swing for that they're both pretty much the best quality be for fifty boards put that on there and it's happy days so yeah so yeah i mean that's pretty much that's pretty much the timing stuff you know we've said before AMD doesn't reveal this information unless there's an imminent tech day obviously around the Computex time you've gotten information so yeah you know there's an e3 event coming up as well where they've got their live stream drivers stuff so you know tend to is launching just around the corner you can sort of pieced together what's happening there as well with the release date and timing you know there were lots of discussion about how you know the specs pricing release date stuff is all subject to change I think this is another point that we want to touch on is this sort of subject to change thing but from what we understand at least with the release date stuff in particular this stuff is set a long time ahead like it's not it's not like they choose two months ahead they're like I will release it in two months from now like they've got this schedule locked in from a long way out so they can plan you know they look at the schedule they see well there's Computex here there's III here there's CES you know our products gonna be ready for C yes they would have known that maybe six months ahead of time to be like no not ready for then might be ready for Computex so then they start planning the logistics around launching then and you know these are very complicated launches for a company like AMD it's not like they can just flick the switch and release the products onto the market there's lots of complicated planning processes that require teams of people to to execute yep so as far as the release stuff that as far as I'm aware that really isn't subject to change too much outside of a few well even pricing really isn't either I think did you say this in your news call remember what you said back in December but I said basically we've run a little bit yeah I said they don't set pricing that far ahead of time because they want to assess the market conditions at the time they release would you I'm not sure exactly how I worded it but that is kind of what I meant yeah people I think thinking back again this was quite some time ago but people were challenging that because I said of course they know what they have to sell it for and that's not necessarily what you were saying you were saying actually they know what they have to sell it for to make a profit yeah they know how much the chips are gonna cost from however many months you want to say ahead of time you know especially when they start getting their first engineering samples in they would have known how much is this going to cost how much is it going to cost at scale you know tsmc gives extremely detailed information about their process tech so AMD would know yields yeah and their projected yields so figuring out how much it cost to make the chip is not a big deal but the question has always been what are their competitors doing which is the main thing that is key for what the prices will end up absolutely you know and we know Intel doesn't really change move on pricing they've not yet done that the only thing that would have changed it is a new Intel CPU in that time we're not even necessarily a new one if they had have decided sales are slowing they know no longer had production shortages they had a massive inventory of these CPUs and they wanted to do something they've never really done before not often and that is slash prices quite literally in half and then ambien might have had to yeah adjust a bit and become as competitive as they possibly could well still make yeah a reasonable margin I think it goes back to you when you were bringing up the the risin 5 through the years you look at how the pricing has been right around that $200 mark each CPU when it launched and I think Intel and AMD both pretty much do exactly that the one exception being the 9900 K which obviously was kind of a core I 9 to launching a new product here and that kind of occupied a new price point but typically generational and generation instead of companies selling the same CPU for cheaper they try and sell a better CPU for the same price so in the CPU market that can be a true piece of IPC improvement yeah that's what Intel us to live it for years so you know it's not unusual to see you know AMD thinking we're gonna make a rise in five CPU and we're gonna sell for $200 I think that would have been in their plans for quite some time that might have changed a little bit depending on say where Intel's Core i5 CPUs you know learned up the ninth gen stuff where did that end up pricing wise but in the at the end of the day they wouldn't be moving on pricing to the extent that we saw it move from the leeks to now I don't think I would have gone we think we're gonna sell this at $100 and then so it actually for $200 I think that's probably a bit more unrealistic than reasonable for that and same with the specs like well Before we jump right in headfirst into the spec so as I say did you want to clear up the TDP thing as well because that's what we good with specs in TDP yeah okay because in Tim's original news corner that started all of this for our involvement in there in the the Zen to leaked information Tim basically as I said presented the information that we had from a really good industry source that told us that things like price and release date in particular which is what the two things I personally was concerned about the most told us that those were very inaccurate and then Tim did his own analysis just sort of go well I'm gonna look into this a bit myself and give my opinion on a few other things which i think was really interesting and one of the things he brought up was TDP which in hindsight looking back you probably think it was one of the weaker arguments you made but it turns out that probably was a terrible activity after I mean I'm I'm not gonna say that I got that argument right because on reflection I don't think I really did I think that I could have done a better job on the maths for that but you know trying to make those videos for news corn don't have much time not gonna excuse myself on that one there but I do want to talk a little bit about some of the stuff I said cuz yeah on reflection is kind of I thought I would be quite wrong on it when I sort of know in the months afterwards I'm like maybe you guys are right on this but at the end of the day we'll talk about it so that's the whole point okay so the initially the one initial comparison I made was the the 2,700 X versus so the risin 727 or ex existing part which was eight cos versus the new 12 core 3700 X both of them being claimed to be a hundred and five watt parts so by by me in the 3700 ex obviously we now know that to be an eight core part but in the leek that was a twelve core part so I made a big issue about that because I didn't think it was realistic to get an extra four cores and a jump from a three point seven gigahertz pace on the 2,700 X to a 4.3 gigahertz and 4.3 gigahertz boost to a four point two gigahertz pace and five gigahertz boost on 12 cores within the same TDP yep I thought that didn't really sound right even knowing the sort of efficiency claims that T you know TSMC were able to achieve with seven nanometers AMD had talked a little bit publicly about those and I just looked at that and I thought the games that you're getting there I'm not really in line with what we would heard from tsmc and what they were capable of and you sort of look at you know the 2700 X does run pretty close to the 105 or TDP in terms of its actual actual power consumption so obviously the TDP tends to be just a marketing term it doesn't always reflect exactly on what the chips will consume power wise but as far as the 27 its 2700 X is concerned it's actually quite close so I thought a lot of those gains especially getting that amount of clock speed improvement because as you go up the clock speed especially those top-end clock speeds yep adding a hundred extra megahertz for 200 extra megahertz can significantly increase the power consumption whereas adding say 100 megahertz or 200 megahertz to say 3 gigahertz or 2 gigahertz isn't that significant so I just looked at that and I thought looked personally to me I didn't really have much insight or information on this I'm like that didn't really look right to me and there was a few other things as well you know they had some the leak had some parts that were say 10 watts different in terms of their TDP and those parts will clock significantly differently like you were getting 4 or 500 megahertz more for ten extra watts on the TDP I thought doesn't really look right either and then the third thing I'm not trying mention all this in the video because I've just sort of you know as you get messages on your phone yeah I didn't mention all of these in the video because I didn't want to bore you with all this analysis but the other thing was the the lake presented new TD piece that AMD hadn't used before there was a 50 watt for the 16 yeah and there was 125 135 watt for the 16 obviously we don't know what the 16 core is gonna look like yep but the 50 watt for this for this six core I was like that doesn't really sound right either because they would just make it a 45 watt part or 35 watt part whichever TDP specs they've actually got and if we look at the lineup today they've got 65 watt 95 105 which is exactly the same as the 2000 series no so again it's kind of that mix between the marketing and the realistic expectations from TSM Sears process and don't get me wrong 7 enemies is very impressive but once you start getting up to that high-end clock speeds above 4 gigahertz the efficiency drops off quite a lot and it looks like from what we're hearing especially Computex with like you know overclocking wakes you know can these chips do 5 gigahertz and all that sort of thing sounds like the this specs that we have seen now the existing 4.5 gigahertz turbos is kind of maxing out almost tsmc 7 nanometer process yep so yeah that's the TDP thing again I didn't think I'd be right in the end and I'm sort of not claiming that as a win for myself either but in the end it turns out that I'm ship was quite a lot lower within the same TDP than what was expected yeah I don't know what the people in the comment section would say but I'd say you were more right than wrong on that one as it turned out but it wasn't something you were you know that wasn't the hole it wasn't the foundation of your argument let's say there was just it was our extra you at some extra insight you were adding in some extra yeah I mean when it comes to assessing these leaks I think it's good to go through the process of how we sort of look at leaks and decide what seems more realistic especially if we haven't heard a lot from industry sources and it's just sort of if there's like one inconsistency in say you get a whole bunch of information like this leak was and you're sort of looking through and if there's like one thing that you think is not quite right like you know the pricing is slightly off for some spec is slightly off that knot isn't necessarily going to discount the entire leak because we understand that especially people they get this information quite early and not necessarily going to have everything a hundred percent spot on things are genuinely subject to change to some degree but then when you sort of look at multiple different components of a leak and things like the pricing don't really seem realistic the release dates you know we we were basically told those weren't correct but also they didn't look correct from what what we sort of knew and then you add in things like these TDPS don't really look right you know the clock speeds looked higher than realistic for what we think the CPUs and process technology can do and it's sort of the culmination of all of those different things can lead us to discount a leak like this as not being real yes whereas something there are plenty of leaks that look more realistic and we sort of are on the side more of caution of that turn out to then be accurate and I think looking back like I think the the leaks for the 16 60 TI through to 1650 in contrast to the Rison 3000 leaks a lot of that information was fairly close to what those products ended up being in terms of your naming no one really thought 1660 that sounds a bit strange turns out they use 1660 on all of the coup de coeur counts and although for those GPUs turned out to be pretty close you know not accurate but pretty close yeah whereas a leak like this you sort of look out and you're like again there's just too many things not adding up and if there's too many things not adding up then generally when we're not gonna side with it so that that's kind of our process internally for how we sort of look at these things and a lot of the things that we we don't think of real or don't think are based in the news and a real leak we just don't cover because we don't think it's interesting we're not a leak Channel we don't want to put information out there that we think is is not going to be close enough to the real products yeah sure but because we got so many comments about this one particular leak we're like I guess we've got to cover this and we did yeah Tim foolishly talked about it and upset a few people but anyway that happens geez mate I reckon you can take this one I've talked about this bit I guess the next thing of I suppose we should just move into this the 16-core part because that's what everyone's been talking about and of course this was in the leaked stuff as well the rumours everyone it's all everyone seems to talk about is an a m416 core part and we've talked about it in our Q&A series probably part one we're not yesterday's we touched on it there a little bit we don't have I suppose too much more to say since well elaborate on what we've already said but I guess I'll just quickly recap that so yeah and it's interesting I suppose since then we've spoken to a lot of people other media some some big names in the YouTube space and and tech sites and it's interesting because they all pretty much I've actually heard anyone agree with our take on things yeah probably I don't know what that means for us but anyway as we've said it's just a guess it's nothing more than that we have honestly no idea when a 16 corp you know we come in with Tim and I've had quite a few lengthy discussions about this and again to just interrupt you a little bit I think as well it doesn't sound like many other people really know like concrete information know everyone everyone's doing it guess yes everyone yes that's a good thing to add though everyone I've spoken to who's having a guess has guessed the complete opposite thing determined myself so again what I don't get I don't know I don't know what that means for us yeah but so we're pretty confident that you won't see a 16-core a.m. for part this year I'm confident okay I mean I think it's more likely I was going to say I was going to follow up by saying having said that they could quite easily release one a week or two after they really saw the other parts again we have absolutely no idea and I'll explain thought process and why we think they won't release it till next year possibly the rise in 4000 series which I've been calling Zen to plus but it's really Zen three but it's a seven nanometer plus deal anyway everyone seems to think it'll come like a month or so a month or two after the release we see next month the July release and we think that won't happen and I suppose those reasons now so one of the reasons is we just don't see the need for a Mt AMD to do it I think that's probably the biggest reason yeah again going back to the market conditions that's right there's really no reason for them to push out a 16 core mainstream part when they don't have to everyone's excited for the 12 core part it seems like that's going to give them 99 or okay a really hard time probably going to be a much better value by than the 99 okay especially if you're doing again a lot of core heavy workloads rendering encouraging light sort of stuff I think for gaming they're probably going to be so close that it's not really gonna matter but again we'll we'll know more about that soon so I think they'll keep that in their back pocket I know I would yeah I would keep that my back pocket for rise in 4,000 because we know next year that next step will be coming and we're not expecting any huge IPC changes there are any major changes really it'll be sort of a Zen plus type deal so having a 16 core part to offer them would make that release really exciting so to us that makes sense and a lot of people have been saying but there's six all parts on the showroom floor so clearly the 16 core parts coming like straightaway and our thought process there is well we know the 16 core part exists it clearly exists they have to make a 16 core part to make a 12 core part assuming that they're not using defective dyes and whatnot but there'll be plenty of they'll be plenty of 12 core parts that are fully working 16 core parts with two of the cause in each of the triplets disabled so I think the 16 core parts that we're hearing a lot about and seeing and people are overclocking it's just obvious that the motherboard vendors have those so they can validate their motherboards or design their motherboards with the 16 core part in mind because it's clearly coming at some point we just don't know when so if there's a CPU we know that's coming it makes sense to design the boards the X 570 boards now with that chip in mind because there's gonna be overclocking and whatnot so they want to make sure that their boards can slot in the 16 core part and overclock the hell out of it so and it's kind of like a thread ripper 2990 WX situation we had to see a whole refresh of X 399 motherboards or at least flagship boards to support that chip to its full capabilities overclock it and whatnot but if you know when the X 399 ships that came out AMD sort of said well we're gonna have like these 300 400 watt parts so maybe make sure the vrm can handle that with ease there wouldn't have been a need to refresh the boards yeah III think that's I think if I covered everything there well is there anything else that we've yeah I think you know earlier today we were sort of putting it into almost like you 2 columns and sort of saying you know which of these columns makes more sense you know so column one would be release it now we're relatively soon you sort of think what what makes sense from AMD's perspective in terms of you know doing that release now as opposed to later and you think of well first of all they have the 16 core part available to them so that's one thing that would allow them to do it now and then you know they want to impress people or they could you know there's interest in it so it would sell you know motherboards are designed for this chip already so they could release it now those are sort of things in the first and you think what would make one of the reasons that would make sense to release it later and it's all the things that you've just been talking about things like well we might not be expecting too much IPC or clock speed gains with rise in 4,000 so by having another higher core count part available for that line it suddenly adds interest and it makes that line exciting and could generate more sales than they would otherwise have gotten next year for their CPUs that's one of them the other one is there's not too much pressure from Intel in terms of their you know CPUs on the mainstream desktop line so there's really not going to be you know a part that's going to compete with a 16 core for me until at least soon we've we don't expect yeah so that's one of them the other one is you know they've still got a release a third generation the thread Ripper platform so if they had released the 16 core part now and then attempted to release a 16 core thread rip apart afterwards then that 16 core part probably isn't going to get too many sales because a lot of the interest will just be in a m4 platform whereas by doing it the other way around in releasing thread Ripper first they could perhaps get some sales for that 16 core part you know before they can release the 16-core aim for parts that's another thing that makes a lot of sense there there's to a lesser degree there's the naming the namings also because they weren't attentionally and pretty much have to make it like will arise an 11 part I don't know it's gonna start getting a bit out of control whereas they could call you know the right if they wanted to stick with Verizon 9 I know there's the whole core count difference thing but it could be you know the riser nine 4900 X yeah for the next later next year I know it's not a particularly great argument because they could very easily have a 39 20 X a 3958 really trying to either way we're just we think might happen so again this is all just pure guesswork and it's just what we hear will happen I'm just gonna say like I know that argument isn't particularly great but at the same time I would be leaning more towards than releasing a 16 core part this year if they hadn't called the 12 core the 3900 if they'd left an obvious yeah if there's less for if they did called the the 3900 X was actually the 3,800 X then that would have that perfect slot right there that would sort of be you'd be teased toward to be like oh look 3,900 X is right there for them to use yeah for the 16 core pup but they released the 12 core with that name which to be honest did surprise me at the launch I wasn't expecting that part to be called that hmm so to me that uh that was kind of an indication I wouldn't want to read into it too much but the companies do plan out these naming schemes quite far in advance and I wouldn't be surprised if the thread Ripper line was actually the lineup that used 39 20 X 30 950 x 39 90 X and those worthy 16 24 and 32 core parts through and written parts yeah I mean again just a guess but so that makes that's right this is this is what we're guessing at the moment so the stuff we spoke of earlier that's really a recap of what was said previously and what we've ended up with and sort of what we said initially there and it's the same thing with the 16 core part so a lot of people took Tim's 16 core at 5 gigahertz or whatever the thumbnails I honestly can't recall yeah but it said it's good spam now good job you did a great job Jim it says too good to be true at the bottom under that and I think a lot of people just took it as we're saying that a 16 core a.m. for processor is simply too good to be true it was much more than that so Tim was never never once in that video said that there won't be a 16 core process or even questioned the existence of a 16 core price actually well I went back and watched the video just before we were going to film this and I actually said that a lot of the naming and core count stuff seemed pretty reasonable to me that was the most reasonable puzzle they thought the names and the core count that's certainly certainly the easiest thing to guess absolutely the core countin names not necessarily frequencies in TDPS that's a bit more tricky yeah but especially after they announced the triplet design previously with is in there stuff yep so so yeah Tim Tim was never saying that a 16 core part was too good to be true or even questioned the existence of one and yeah there's obviously going to be one we're still not saying there won't be but we're just questioning when it will be released and we think it'll be next year but time we love to be wrong yeah that would be great yeah we love testing CP maybe a lot more stuff to test this year and that would probably mean as well that for Zen 3 they've got some pretty exciting stuff to hype that launch up as well yeah and beyond a few percent IPC increase yeah and you know the too good to be true thing was really about everything the 16 core part clocking up to more than 5 gigahertz and that being priced at what was it like 450 or 500 dollars I should say it was the whole thing it was the entire story for each part it was you know it all seemed too good to be true like some of it might have been true you know weren't saying it was all invalid but just as a package deal it seemed to be true yeah so and yeah unfortunately it kind of was well it was always going to be and that's unfortunately why we're seeing I think there's a lot of talking our announcement video about it being disappointing which is I don't agree with that yeah it's disappointing to see because it's really not like this this is end to step from AMD again we haven't tested it but what we're expecting what we've heard on the showroom floor from people who have tested it it's going to be a pretty phenomenal step and it's going to be really exciting so nothing to be disappointed about but yeah I think this is kind of why we don't really cover leaks and rumors or like - like these sort of leaks in general because imagine if this leak hadn't happened and there was no information or no no information of this degree about the Rison 3000 line and then it gets to launch and I would imagine people would actually be amazed that AMD has a ninety nine hundred K capable part that not only is 65 watts but also is costing you $200 less than 99 hundred K oh yeah yeah that from from that perspective not knowing anything and coming in seeing that product and you come away from it pretty impressed but when you come from the perspective of being suggested that there might be this you know cheap part that's I think is it would I think there's a discussion it's quite interesting I know a lot of our viewers and a lot of people are in the tech scene love discussing this thing these sort of stuff and speculating they have a lot of fun doing it and it's quite thought-provoking and I don't really have anything against that it's when and it's hard to do this because people jump to conclusions on all sorts of stuff but it's well it sort of presented as being more fact like yeah yeah yeah it's I know it's a really tough one to to tackle it's one of the reasons why we just don't touch it because we don't like to mislead at all we try to avoid that best we can we try to provide you guys with the most accurate information we can and the only way we can really do that is when we get official information so we just hold out and wait and because we hear all kinds of things and we'd love to sort of spill the beans on a few things and but we don't know if that's gonna be accurate and then we get mislead you guys it's not great for our credibility so yeah we always just hold out and wait and yeah that's what we sorted you on this one I mean Tim discussed the leaks cuz you guys asked him to when he gave you his opinion and anyway it's played out the way it has so yeah that that's that really I mean yeah at this point we're just gonna move on now we really just want to test them and see what they're really all about and yeah yeah I mean you know it's unfortunate that you know the leak ended up being wrong you know you kind of feel for the people that get this information they publish it they stand by and it turns out to be incorrect because you know that can hit people hard and I think you know it's it's a tough game being in the leakin and room again we see the you know there's a lot of sites out there that are focused on on this content and you know you kind of live and die by these sort of things I mean it is fun and exciting but at the same time people do get really caught up in it so I'm not some of the people creating it the people watching it like they're already making imaginary purchases based on this information a lot of it is said you know we're speculating here or some of this is based on leaked information and so therefore we're making this speculation or take it with a grain of salt whatever that or people just hear what they want to hear and a lot of people heard 6-core Xen 2 processor 12 threads for $100 coming in the next few months yes that's what you know when you see these leaks and you're sort of looking into them yourself you know maybe we don't comment them on whatever you know just keeping in mind is a sort of you know potential but you know as always take everything with a grain of salt and don't believe any rumour that you see ahead of launch as a hard-coded fact no matter what the sort of you know track record of people are you know there's obviously people in the industry that tend to be leaning more on the accurate side there's people that people you know quite clearly say aren't accurate but no matter who it is it's just better to think of it as not accurate until you see the information or take it with a grain of salt and then especially when it turns out not to be accurate don't go around blasting people into the next century because they haven't got it right you know I it's not something I like to see yes it's not good and it's not a good for the it's not good for the community because you create a it's a sort of a toxic environment for the community to have it really has lasted for leaks not being correct and and it goes both ways as well when you hear a leak and then someone says that either they've got information that contradicts that or maybe that just doesn't seem like it you know that's how it'll go ok well I'll take that on board yeah don't don't get very upset and we did see a lot of people get really upset with with what Tim said as well so that yeah that goes both ways but yeah there's you have no real reason to get super upset with someone that yeah that was just really passionate about this stuff and yeah anyway I think that's I mean it's good to see the passion from the community about you know from these products and getting excited about leaks and stuff but you know going around and attacking people is doesn't make a nice environment to operate in for these people and sort of you know we want to have as many people creating you know good quality content and analysis and discussion as we possibly can and this sort of thing can discourage people from making making content which I think we don't don't really want to see no matter who it is so yeah exactly yeah so yeah that's well certain hope everyone's enjoyed this really casual so of discussion Tim and I have talked about this stuff a bit we talked about so much at the show probably too much just about lost my voice and yeah it's been a long show but it's been good and yeah well I hope you guys enjoyed this anyway so it was a reasonably well structured it was about we didn't really do any planning we obviously have no teleprompter no script we've got a couple of rough notes on our phone but yeah timid like I said timid I've had this discussion back and forth a bit and I keep saying this is stuff we should be doing on camera because I think our viewers would be interested so we've sat down for an hour now yeah hope you enjoyed this hour-long episode yeah it's not something we often do on the channel I'm really really itching to get back home I want to do some preliminary testing I've promised you guys that are five sixteen hundred versus seventy seven okay revisit see how they're getting on today in the latest applications and games plenty of things that Tim wants to do so we'll get back to a usual sort of schedule stuff soon and then you know when the release date is for all the Zen to stuff and then I think I'm probably not going to sleep for it cieariy think there's a lot of stuff coming so I mean for people that are interested in like launches and announcements and stuff it's only a week until a three which means only a week until we get you know Navi information from what we understand until they'll be in your super announcement is they'll potentially at least what we understand III as well it almost certainly be some juicy news coming sorry yeah and on top of that you know we obviously don't cover consoles like game console is gonna be a big thing at e3 so I think as far as e3 s go and games this is one of probably the biggest shows in quite some time in terms of and it's surprising to see you know product announcements in our space in terms of PC enthusiasts being announced around at e3 time because you kind of think Computex or maybe CES is is typical Gamescom or one of those shows but to see all this stuff coming at e3 is just gonna make that show a really bumpa one this year so yeah will be a lot of stuff to cover next week I think not the way you're attending e3 but well I was sitting at home in Australia yeah a lot of interests don't cover the news as it comes out and give our piƱon on things yeah there'll be that but anyway I think we should probably wrap this up you know I would agree yep hope need some water yeah I just need some water it's very humid here and then it's extremely dry in the hotel so it makes it quite difficult for talking especially when you were talking all night we had a good catch up with some other media last night so yeah it's been a really good show for us and we've had a lot of fun hopefully you guys have enjoyed our coverage yeah and yeah anyway thanks for watching like subscribe do all that standard stuff thumbs up and all that and yeah thanks for watching
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