The Death of the Modern Transistor and Moore's Law
The Death of the Modern Transistor and Moore's Law
2017-11-07
we've discussed transistors quite a bit
on this channel from general framework
to how they send and receive data how
that works with your operating system
and other components in the PC that's
all basically the framework for today's
video
so is the modern transistor on its way
out the door are you tired of getting
those copyright claims and your YouTube
videos for using content that maybe you
shouldn't because it's not really yours
video content that you didn't produce
but that you want to use in your videos
that's exactly what videoblocks
offers and it's all royalty-free which
means no copyright strikes at all video
blocks has over three million videos and
after-effects you can implement into
your videos to make them look as
professional as possible and check this
out you even get a seven day free trial
via the link below you got nothing to
lose right it's free so check it out
click the link below and get started
with their huge library of video
resources let's define Moore's law first
which isn't actually a natural law in
any sense it's more or less an
observation it also relates to the
fabrication process and how quickly
things are shrinking down to that
threshold size at which point
transistors will no longer work the way
they were intended in 1965 Gordon Moore
was asked to predict trends in the
semiconductor industry over the next
decade this is 1965 by the way when
modern computers weren't even really
being thought of yet in his article
Moore wrote the complexity for minimum
component costs has increased at a rate
of roughly a factor of 2 per year
certainly over the short term this rate
can be expected to continue if not
increase over the long term the rate of
increase is a bit more uncertain
although there is no reason to believe
that it will not remain nearly constant
for at least 10 years
Moore was right among the flash memory
manufacturers in particular fabrication
processes were doubling a complexity
every one and a half to two years it's
actually been increasing recently as for
central processors namely Intel and AMD
things are a bit slower but still
trending just look at the last decade in
2006 the intel core2duo boasted a 65
nanometer process five years later with
the release of Sandy Bridge process it
shrunk to 32 nanometers allowing for
insane transistor counts per die just
the three years later we were on the 22
nanometer process and
we have Sky KB and Coffee Lake chips
along with AMD's and rice and CPUs all
boasting the modern 40 nanometer process
this length by the way it describes the
degree of accuracy within a transistor
no distance in particular though you'll
hear the distance between the source and
drain being mentioned quite a bit which
is considerably smaller than said
process here's a clip from one of my
previous minutes science videos
clarifying the nomenclature once upon a
time this length actually meant
something typically the length of the
transistor gate but a senior fellow and
Technology and manufacturing group
director of Intel mark Bohr proclaims he
currently quote can't point to the one
dimension that's 32 or 22 or 40
nanometers on any of these processors
quote some dimensions are smaller than
the stated node name and others are
larger in short by today's standards
these lengths are more like milestone
indicators for companies an example of
this would be Global Foundries 14
nanometer chips super Monica and Jerry
vice-president of advanced technology
architecture a Global Foundries revealed
that his first generation 14 nanometer
FinFET chips essentially recycled old 20
nanometers framework and simply quote
plugged in FinFET making this new
technology quote 20 nanometer FinFET in
a way and quote meaning that the company
simply reduced the lithographic numeral
for the sake of signifying the change
from a planner to thin design misleading
yes
although most consumers are unlikely to
notice except for all of you watching
this video many have postulated that the
distance between the source and drain of
any modern transistor will eventually
become so small that current that
electrons in particular will simply jump
the bridge between the two electrodes
without actually meeting a physical
connection this is a process known as
quantum tunneling and it's pretty much
inevitable unless we do something to
mitigate that transition from one
electrode to the other if you can't open
and close a transistor at will then the
transistor is virtually useless leaks
already happened to some degree due to
imperfections and the fabrication
processes which is why some cores are
disabled an AMD and Intel CPUs it's
inevitable nothing we make is perfect
but if every transistor in a chip
experienced this to a large degree
thanks to a shrunken process the CPU
wouldn't be reliable it would
instantly hang and create errors so when
is too small
at one point we believed just five
nanometers that is until IBM just this
year released a fully functioning chip
based on the five nanometer process in
fact in the general consumer space were
not far from that Intel's releasing
Canon Lake here soon based on the 10
nanometer process and flash memory is
already on its way since the early 2000s
in fact we've been tickling this
boundary transistors as small as 3
nanometers were being developed in Korea
in 2006 and 2012 they did it again with
a 2 nanometer transistor the same year a
single atom even was used as a
transistor so this does not mean in any
way shape or form that the modern
transistor is on its way out soon to be
replaced by quantum computers in fact
most of what you do day to day will
benefit more from the transistor that we
have today simple open and closed
transistor versus a quantum computer
they're just so much more complicated
extremely costly net say that even if we
were on a level playing field here and
they cost the same in some instances
there would still be a case made for the
simple binary transistor over a super
complex computer like that of a quantum
one streaming Netflix or watching
YouTube videos won't benefit from a
quantum computer at all instead various
processes will be implemented to ensure
that current doesn't leak unexpectedly
between the source and drain of those
modern binary transistors extending
barriers the use of carbon nanotubes and
silicon photonics are all proposed
technologies intended to mitigate the
effects of quantum mechanics we may have
slowed down a bit since the Golden Age
of mr. more but that does not mean in
any sense that his law which is actually
an observation defines the end of the
modern transistor it simply talks about
how quickly we've been advancing towards
the zero nanometer process toward the
point where we can't get any smaller the
width of an atom may be the width of a
cork when I get really technical with it
that's all later on down the line but I
have no doubt that we'll get there
eventually as for now the modern
transistor will remain modern I don't
expect that we'll be replacing them with
quantum computers anytime soon they're
just too costly and honestly what we do
most day-to-day tasks won't benefit from
quantum computers anyway stay tuned for
what's coming next after the 10 enemy2
process should be pretty exciting from
both the power
and performance standpoint again we'd
like to thank videoblocks for sponsoring
this video don't forget to click the
link in the video description it's at
the very top there it's your 7-day free
trial it's just it's just there waiting
for you free you guys check it out let
me know what you think about it by the
way in the comment section below
once you have signed up if you like this
video be sure to give this one a thumbs
up I do appreciate it also click that
red subscribe button for more content
like this and the bail notification icon
to receive the notifications that videos
like this have been posted on the
channel it was a long way for us and not
many people are being notified about
these videos these days
this is science to do thanks for
learning with us
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.