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The Death of the Modern Transistor and Moore's Law

2017-11-07
we've discussed transistors quite a bit on this channel from general framework to how they send and receive data how that works with your operating system and other components in the PC that's all basically the framework for today's video so is the modern transistor on its way out the door are you tired of getting those copyright claims and your YouTube videos for using content that maybe you shouldn't because it's not really yours video content that you didn't produce but that you want to use in your videos that's exactly what videoblocks offers and it's all royalty-free which means no copyright strikes at all video blocks has over three million videos and after-effects you can implement into your videos to make them look as professional as possible and check this out you even get a seven day free trial via the link below you got nothing to lose right it's free so check it out click the link below and get started with their huge library of video resources let's define Moore's law first which isn't actually a natural law in any sense it's more or less an observation it also relates to the fabrication process and how quickly things are shrinking down to that threshold size at which point transistors will no longer work the way they were intended in 1965 Gordon Moore was asked to predict trends in the semiconductor industry over the next decade this is 1965 by the way when modern computers weren't even really being thought of yet in his article Moore wrote the complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of 2 per year certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue if not increase over the long term the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain although there is no reason to believe that it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years Moore was right among the flash memory manufacturers in particular fabrication processes were doubling a complexity every one and a half to two years it's actually been increasing recently as for central processors namely Intel and AMD things are a bit slower but still trending just look at the last decade in 2006 the intel core2duo boasted a 65 nanometer process five years later with the release of Sandy Bridge process it shrunk to 32 nanometers allowing for insane transistor counts per die just the three years later we were on the 22 nanometer process and we have Sky KB and Coffee Lake chips along with AMD's and rice and CPUs all boasting the modern 40 nanometer process this length by the way it describes the degree of accuracy within a transistor no distance in particular though you'll hear the distance between the source and drain being mentioned quite a bit which is considerably smaller than said process here's a clip from one of my previous minutes science videos clarifying the nomenclature once upon a time this length actually meant something typically the length of the transistor gate but a senior fellow and Technology and manufacturing group director of Intel mark Bohr proclaims he currently quote can't point to the one dimension that's 32 or 22 or 40 nanometers on any of these processors quote some dimensions are smaller than the stated node name and others are larger in short by today's standards these lengths are more like milestone indicators for companies an example of this would be Global Foundries 14 nanometer chips super Monica and Jerry vice-president of advanced technology architecture a Global Foundries revealed that his first generation 14 nanometer FinFET chips essentially recycled old 20 nanometers framework and simply quote plugged in FinFET making this new technology quote 20 nanometer FinFET in a way and quote meaning that the company simply reduced the lithographic numeral for the sake of signifying the change from a planner to thin design misleading yes although most consumers are unlikely to notice except for all of you watching this video many have postulated that the distance between the source and drain of any modern transistor will eventually become so small that current that electrons in particular will simply jump the bridge between the two electrodes without actually meeting a physical connection this is a process known as quantum tunneling and it's pretty much inevitable unless we do something to mitigate that transition from one electrode to the other if you can't open and close a transistor at will then the transistor is virtually useless leaks already happened to some degree due to imperfections and the fabrication processes which is why some cores are disabled an AMD and Intel CPUs it's inevitable nothing we make is perfect but if every transistor in a chip experienced this to a large degree thanks to a shrunken process the CPU wouldn't be reliable it would instantly hang and create errors so when is too small at one point we believed just five nanometers that is until IBM just this year released a fully functioning chip based on the five nanometer process in fact in the general consumer space were not far from that Intel's releasing Canon Lake here soon based on the 10 nanometer process and flash memory is already on its way since the early 2000s in fact we've been tickling this boundary transistors as small as 3 nanometers were being developed in Korea in 2006 and 2012 they did it again with a 2 nanometer transistor the same year a single atom even was used as a transistor so this does not mean in any way shape or form that the modern transistor is on its way out soon to be replaced by quantum computers in fact most of what you do day to day will benefit more from the transistor that we have today simple open and closed transistor versus a quantum computer they're just so much more complicated extremely costly net say that even if we were on a level playing field here and they cost the same in some instances there would still be a case made for the simple binary transistor over a super complex computer like that of a quantum one streaming Netflix or watching YouTube videos won't benefit from a quantum computer at all instead various processes will be implemented to ensure that current doesn't leak unexpectedly between the source and drain of those modern binary transistors extending barriers the use of carbon nanotubes and silicon photonics are all proposed technologies intended to mitigate the effects of quantum mechanics we may have slowed down a bit since the Golden Age of mr. more but that does not mean in any sense that his law which is actually an observation defines the end of the modern transistor it simply talks about how quickly we've been advancing towards the zero nanometer process toward the point where we can't get any smaller the width of an atom may be the width of a cork when I get really technical with it that's all later on down the line but I have no doubt that we'll get there eventually as for now the modern transistor will remain modern I don't expect that we'll be replacing them with quantum computers anytime soon they're just too costly and honestly what we do most day-to-day tasks won't benefit from quantum computers anyway stay tuned for what's coming next after the 10 enemy2 process should be pretty exciting from both the power and performance standpoint again we'd like to thank videoblocks for sponsoring this video don't forget to click the link in the video description it's at the very top there it's your 7-day free trial it's just it's just there waiting for you free you guys check it out let me know what you think about it by the way in the comment section below once you have signed up if you like this video be sure to give this one a thumbs up I do appreciate it also click that red subscribe button for more content like this and the bail notification icon to receive the notifications that videos like this have been posted on the channel it was a long way for us and not many people are being notified about these videos these days this is science to do thanks for 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